Arvind's Newsletter-Weekend edition

Issue No #891

1.Why Jaishankar is right in saying India is waiting for a ‘Thank You’ from the world

External affairs minister S Jaishankar has said that India awaits a 'Thank you' for its role in stabilising global oil and gas markets through its strategic purchase policies amid the Russia-Ukraine war.

"So we've actually softened the oil markets and the gas markets through our purchase policies. We have, as a consequence, actually managed global inflation. I'm waiting for the thank you," Jaishankar said.

The external affairs minister is right because of several reasons opined Shishir Gupta of Hindustan Times.

India imports more than 87.5% of its annual energy requirements. Had New Delhi relied on only traditional source of energy, particularly Middle East, the world would have faced acute supply crunch and Gulf-based suppliers would have raised prices on the simple principle of high demand and less supply. The oil prices, that largely remained below $100 per barrel, would have skyrocketed.

2.Sickle-Cell Treatment Created With Gene Editing Wins U.K. Approval, reported New York Times

The first treatment that relies on CRISPR is expected to receive U.S. approval next month. But it may cost millions of dollars per patient.

You likely kind of know what CRISPR is already but as a quick refresher: CRISPR works like molecular scissors, allowing scientists to precisely edit specific parts of a cell's DNA. CRISPR turns developing therapeutics into something like a coding challenge.

CRISPR holds enormous potential, but given its relative nascency,regulatory hurdles, and safety considerations, its application in actual treatments has remained limited to clinical trials, until now.

CASGEVY’s authorization is the first regulatory approval of a CRISPR-based therapy in the world, a huge milestone for biotech and medicine. The therapy was developed by CRISPR Therapeutics and Vertex, the rational drug design company.

CASGEVY is designed to treat sickle cell disease (SCD) and transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia (TDT), both severe genetic blood disorders.

While SCD and TDT patients stand to benefit most from this approval, this development paves the way for similar CRISPR-based treatments across a wide array of genetic disorders.

3.Microsoft and Apple moved to make their products more interoperable with rival systems. Microsoft launched a Windows App, meaning users can run Windows on their iPhone, iPad, or Mac. Windows has long allowed remote connection to other PCs, but streaming a Windows desktop to non-Windows devices was previously impossible. The app is in preview, and only for business customers, but is expected to be made available for personal use.

And Apple announced that it would allow iPhones to text more smoothly with Android devices — read-receipts, images and video, and internet calling will be easier between the two systems. Google, which has called on Apple to make the change for a long time, sniffed that it was “happy to see Apple take the first step”.

However, Apple has fallen further behind in its multibillion-dollar attempt to make a modem chip for its iPhone. The gadget company has been stymied by the complexity of replacing an intricate Qualcomm component. Now, after having already delayed a plan to have an in-house chip by next year, Apple is said to be likely to miss a goal to ship the component by the spring of 2025. That would postpone the release until at least the end of 2025 or early 2026.

4.A major U.N. summit in Nairobi ends today, with hopes that it could lead to the first global treaty to tackle plastic pollution. 

As the world gets richer, demand for plastic increases: The U.N. forecasts that global consumption will double by 2050. The negotiations will discuss improving plastic recycling and limiting production, and whether targets should be set by states or by an intergovernmental body. 

At the same time, places around the world are cracking down on plastic: New York state is suing PepsiCo, the world’s second-largest food company, over plastic pollution, arguing that it is contaminating water and harming wildlife in the Buffalo River.

5.Tom Standage’s ten trends to watch in 2024 in Economist’s The World Ahead.

Life comes at you fast. Whether it’s the upsurge in armed conflict, the redrawing of the global energy-resources map or rapid progress in artificial intelligence (ai), the world is changing at mind-boggling speed. From the situation in the Middle East to the adoption of electric vehicles to the treatment of obesity, things look very different from the way they did just a year or two ago. Our aim is to help you keep your worldview up to date—and tell you what might be coming next. To kick things off, here are ten themes to watch in the coming year.

Elections all over the world, for more voters than ever before, will put a spotlight on the global state of democracy. There will be more than 70 elections in 2024 in countries that are home to around 4.2bn people—for the first time, more than half of the global population. But while there is more voting than ever, there is not necessarily more democracy: many elections will be neither free nor fair.

Voters, and the courts, will give their verdicts on Donald Trump, who has a one-in-three chance of regaining the presidency. The result may come down to a few tens of thousands of voters in a handful of swing states. But the consequences will be global, affecting everything from climate policy to military support for Ukraine. Indeed, election-rigging in Russia may mean Vladimir Putin’s fate depends more on American voters than Russian ones.

Listen to this story.

Enjoy more audio and podcasts on iOS or Android.

Life comes at you fast. Whether it’s the upsurge in armed conflict, the redrawing of the global energy-resources map or rapid progress in artificial intelligence (ai), the world is changing at mind-boggling speed. From the situation in the Middle East to the adoption of electric vehicles to the treatment of obesity, things look very different from the way they did just a year or two ago. Our aim is to help you keep your worldview up to date—and tell you what might be coming next. To kick things off, here are ten themes to watch in the coming year.

Elections all over the world, for more voters than ever before, will put a spotlight on the global state of democracy. There will be more than 70 elections in 2024 in countries that are home to around 4.2bn people—for the first time, more than half of the global population. But while there is more voting than ever, there is not necessarily more democracy: many elections will be neither free nor fair.

Voters, and the courts, will give their verdicts on Donald Trump, who has a one-in-three chance of regaining the presidency. The result may come down to a few tens of thousands of voters in a handful of swing states. But the consequences will be global, affecting everything from climate policy to military support for Ukraine. Indeed, election-rigging in Russia may mean Vladimir Putin’s fate depends more on American voters than Russian ones.

Accordingly, Europe must step up and provide Ukraine with the military and economic backing needed for a long fight, while laying out a path towards eventual eu membership. This is the right thing to do, as well as insuring against the risk that Mr Trump regains power and withdraws support.

Hamas’s attack on Israel, and Israel’s retaliation against Gaza, have upended the region and scotched the idea that the world could continue to ignore the Palestinians’ plight. Will it become a wider regional conflict—or offer a new chance for peace? For America, the overstretched superpower, this is also a test of whether it can adapt to a more complex and threatening world.

Vladimir Putin’s fate will depend more on American voters than Russian ones

America’s plan to pivot to Asia, and focus more on its rivalry with a rising China, has been derailed by war in Ukraine and now Gaza. Russia, too, is distracted and losing influence. Frozen conflicts are thawing and local cold wars are heating up around the world. Instability in the Sahel is rising. The world is preparing for more conflict now that America’s “unipolar moment” has ended.

As China’s growth has slowed, tensions rise over Taiwan, and America continues to limit Chinese access to advanced technologies, the “new cold war” rhetoric has hardened. But Western companies trying to reduce their supply chains’ dependency on China will find it much easier said than done. Meanwhile both camps will woo the “middle powers” of the global south, not least for their green resources.

Listen to this story.

Enjoy more audio and podcasts on iOS or Android.

Life comes at you fast. Whether it’s the upsurge in armed conflict, the redrawing of the global energy-resources map or rapid progress in artificial intelligence (ai), the world is changing at mind-boggling speed. From the situation in the Middle East to the adoption of electric vehicles to the treatment of obesity, things look very different from the way they did just a year or two ago. Our aim is to help you keep your worldview up to date—and tell you what might be coming next. To kick things off, here are ten themes to watch in the coming year.

Elections all over the world, for more voters than ever before, will put a spotlight on the global state of democracy. There will be more than 70 elections in 2024 in countries that are home to around 4.2bn people—for the first time, more than half of the global population. But while there is more voting than ever, there is not necessarily more democracy: many elections will be neither free nor fair.

Voters, and the courts, will give their verdicts on Donald Trump, who has a one-in-three chance of regaining the presidency. The result may come down to a few tens of thousands of voters in a handful of swing states. But the consequences will be global, affecting everything from climate policy to military support for Ukraine. Indeed, election-rigging in Russia may mean Vladimir Putin’s fate depends more on American voters than Russian ones.

Accordingly, Europe must step up and provide Ukraine with the military and economic backing needed for a long fight, while laying out a path towards eventual eu membership. This is the right thing to do, as well as insuring against the risk that Mr Trump regains power and withdraws support.

Hamas’s attack on Israel, and Israel’s retaliation against Gaza, have upended the region and scotched the idea that the world could continue to ignore the Palestinians’ plight. Will it become a wider regional conflict—or offer a new chance for peace? For America, the overstretched superpower, this is also a test of whether it can adapt to a more complex and threatening world.

Vladimir Putin’s fate will depend more on American voters than Russian ones

America’s plan to pivot to Asia, and focus more on its rivalry with a rising China, has been derailed by war in Ukraine and now Gaza. Russia, too, is distracted and losing influence. Frozen conflicts are thawing and local cold wars are heating up around the world. Instability in the Sahel is rising. The world is preparing for more conflict now that America’s “unipolar moment” has ended.

As China’s growth has slowed, tensions rise over Taiwan, and America continues to limit Chinese access to advanced technologies, the “new cold war” rhetoric has hardened. But Western companies trying to reduce their supply chains’ dependency on China will find it much easier said than done. Meanwhile both camps will woo the “middle powers” of the global south, not least for their green resources.

The clean-energy transition is minting new green superpowers and redrawing the energy-resources map. Lithium, copper and nickel matter much more, while oil and gas, and the regions that dominate their supply, matter less. Competition for green resources is reshaping geopolitics and trade, and creating some unexpected winners and losers. Meanwhile, a “greenlash” is under way among voters who regard climate-friendly policies as an elite conspiracy against ordinary people.

Western economies did better than expected in 2023 but are not out of the woods yet, and interest rates staying “higher, for longer” will be painful for companies and consumers alike, even if recessions are avoided. (Keep an eye on the banks, and their exposure to commercial property, where things could go bad.) China may fall into deflation.

Listen to this story.

Enjoy more audio and podcasts on iOS or Android.

Life comes at you fast. Whether it’s the upsurge in armed conflict, the redrawing of the global energy-resources map or rapid progress in artificial intelligence (ai), the world is changing at mind-boggling speed. From the situation in the Middle East to the adoption of electric vehicles to the treatment of obesity, things look very different from the way they did just a year or two ago. Our aim is to help you keep your worldview up to date—and tell you what might be coming next. To kick things off, here are ten themes to watch in the coming year.

Elections all over the world, for more voters than ever before, will put a spotlight on the global state of democracy. There will be more than 70 elections in 2024 in countries that are home to around 4.2bn people—for the first time, more than half of the global population. But while there is more voting than ever, there is not necessarily more democracy: many elections will be neither free nor fair.

Voters, and the courts, will give their verdicts on Donald Trump, who has a one-in-three chance of regaining the presidency. The result may come down to a few tens of thousands of voters in a handful of swing states. But the consequences will be global, affecting everything from climate policy to military support for Ukraine. Indeed, election-rigging in Russia may mean Vladimir Putin’s fate depends more on American voters than Russian ones.

Accordingly, Europe must step up and provide Ukraine with the military and economic backing needed for a long fight, while laying out a path towards eventual eu membership. This is the right thing to do, as well as insuring against the risk that Mr Trump regains power and withdraws support.

Hamas’s attack on Israel, and Israel’s retaliation against Gaza, have upended the region and scotched the idea that the world could continue to ignore the Palestinians’ plight. Will it become a wider regional conflict—or offer a new chance for peace? For America, the overstretched superpower, this is also a test of whether it can adapt to a more complex and threatening world.

Vladimir Putin’s fate will depend more on American voters than Russian ones

America’s plan to pivot to Asia, and focus more on its rivalry with a rising China, has been derailed by war in Ukraine and now Gaza. Russia, too, is distracted and losing influence. Frozen conflicts are thawing and local cold wars are heating up around the world. Instability in the Sahel is rising. The world is preparing for more conflict now that America’s “unipolar moment” has ended.

As China’s growth has slowed, tensions rise over Taiwan, and America continues to limit Chinese access to advanced technologies, the “new cold war” rhetoric has hardened. But Western companies trying to reduce their supply chains’ dependency on China will find it much easier said than done. Meanwhile both camps will woo the “middle powers” of the global south, not least for their green resources.

The clean-energy transition is minting new green superpowers and redrawing the energy-resources map. Lithium, copper and nickel matter much more, while oil and gas, and the regions that dominate their supply, matter less. Competition for green resources is reshaping geopolitics and trade, and creating some unexpected winners and losers. Meanwhile, a “greenlash” is under way among voters who regard climate-friendly policies as an elite conspiracy against ordinary people.

Western economies did better than expected in 2023 but are not out of the woods yet, and interest rates staying “higher, for longer” will be painful for companies and consumers alike, even if recessions are avoided. (Keep an eye on the banks, and their exposure to commercial property, where things could go bad.) China may fall into deflation.

Businesses are adopting it, regulators are regulating it and techies continue to improve it. Debate will intensify over the best regulatory approach—and whether arguments over “existential risk” are a decoy that benefits incumbents. Unexpected uses and abuses will keep popping up. Worries abound about ai’s effect on jobs and potential for election meddling. Its biggest actual impact? Faster coding.

Perhaps ideological differences will be put aside as the world enjoys the Paris Olympics, astronauts (maybe) looping around the Moon, and the men’s t20 cricket World Cup. But it is just as likely that those hoping for some global unity will be stumped.