Arvind's Newsletter

1.India is likely to experience an extended monsoon season

The monsoon season will be concluding this month. Till date, the cumulative rainfall is 7 percent above the Long Period Average (LPA). Though rainfall has been largely normal or above normal, it remains unevenly distributed.

While 53 percent of the country received normal rainfall, 33 percent experienced excess rainfall. Although no region reported complete drought conditions, 14 percent reported deficient rainfall. This includes significant deficits in Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, and Bihar, where many districts received less than 35 percent of the normal rainfall.

India's monsoon rains are expected to extend into late September 2024 due to a developing low-pressure system. This prolonged rainfall may damage summer-sown crops like rice and cotton, which are typically harvested from mid-September, potentially leading to food inflation.

2.From Google to Amazon, TN turns top AI destination for global majors

With investments and projects coming from Google, PayPal, Applied Materials, Amazon Web Services, and many others, Tamil Nadu is fast becoming the favourite destination for artificial intelligence (AI) initiatives in India.

Google is betting big on the state for long-term play in AI, as the Tamil Nadu AI Labs of the company is set to be on track soon.

According to sources, the interests of these companies may even revolutionise the transportation system in Chennai as an AI-enabled one. It may link the suburban rail to buses and taxi services under one platform. 

Also, Google and the government are targeting to train 2 million youths on AI, through a curriculum-based approach, starting from engineering colleges in the state.

Tamil Nadu contributes 17 per cent of engineers – the highest by any state – out of the 1.5 million graduating in India annually. 

3.Indian CEOs highest among execs suffering from imposter syndrome

A rising number of corner-room occupants in India are feeling "overwhelmed".

According to a CEO survey conducted by global executive search and leadership consulting firm Korn Ferry, increasing pressure from company promoters and boards, heightened regulatory risks, constant scrutiny in a digital age and a disruptive business environment are leading to many top bosses experiencing an "imposter syndrome" - a feeling of being stretched too far beyond their abilities.

 Nearly three quarters of the CEOs surveyed in India acknowledge having faced this problem, show the findings shared with ET. This number was 58% globally.

The survey reached out to 1,250 CEOs globally, including 238 from India. Out of the six markets covered in the survey (the US, UK, Middle East, Brazil, Australia and India), India and the US showed high imposter syndrome, with India reporting the highest.

4.Southampton university to open campus in India reported Financial Times

Southhampton university is to open a campus offering UK degrees in Delhi from next year, signalling fresh interest in India at a time of mounting concern over British higher education finances and overseas student numbers.

The university said it would initially offer six undergraduate and postgraduate programmes from 2025, as part of plans to invest up to £30mn over the next decade and attract 5,500 students a year. 

The decision makes Southampton the first highly ranked international university with full status to operate in India, and follows efforts by Indian policymakers since 2020 to open up the country to foreign universities.

5.Snakebites kill more Indians than malaria, dengue. Blame the urban-rural divide

Snakebites in India are mostly brushed away as a rural, poor-people problem, but the numbers are staggering. More Indians die from snakebites than from all other wildlife encounters combined, and the death toll surpasses that of dengue and malaria deaths, which receive mission-mode attention from the government. BJP MP Rajiv Pratap Rudy reported in Parliament last week that as many as 50,000 people die each year from snakebites, though surveys suggest the number is closer to 58,000.

The issue rarely makes headlines despite India being the worst-affected country in the world. Data from a 2020 national mortality study shows that 94 per cent of snakebites occur in rural areas, and 77 per cent of the deaths happen outside hospital.

6.A general strike began in Israel to call for the release of hostages held by Hamas. 

Thousands of organisations are closed, including some schools, universities, and government ministries, the BBC reported. Protesters are angry at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is accused of blocking a truce to prolong his political survival. The US will present Israel and Hamas with a “take it or leave it” ceasefire deal in the coming weeks, The Washington Post reported, as the White House grows frustrated with Netanyahu’s stance.

A hostage negotiation expert argued in Foreign Policy that Netanyahu “is not genuinely interested in a hostage deal,”and said the White House should press for its own deal to release the four surviving US hostages.

7.Kamala Harris says she plans biggest digital ad campaign in US history reported Financial Times

Kamala Harris is planning to spend $370mn on advertising between early September and the US election in November, including what her campaign is describing as the biggest digital ad buy in the history of American politics. The announcement on Sunday by Harris comes as the vice-president is trying to translate the $540mn fundraising surge since her July entry into the race against Donald Trump into benefits on the campaign trail.

British political parties have an advertising spending limit of less than £2 million ($2.6 million) in their election campaigns, barely 1% of what Harris will spend on digital ads alone. And they only have six weeks to spend it, between an election being called and the actual vote.

8.Anatomy of Reliance-Disney merger: What are the strategies and challenges? Vanita Kohli-Khandekar in Business Standard

The joint venture between Reliance Industries (RIL) and Bodhi Tree Systems owned Viacom 18 Media, and The Walt Disney Company will create India’s largest media company with revenue of Rs 23000 crores (FY2024).

The RIL-Disney combination will create a broadcaster with 110 channels such as Star Plus and Colors and a leading 32 per cent share of all television viewership on the back shows such as Bigg Boss and Anupama.

That is a hold over 285 million of the 890 million TV viewers, with large slices in Hindi, Marathi, Telugu and Bengali speaking markets. According to Media Partners Asia (MPA), the duo will have 40 per cent share of the total revenue market for broadcasters and 45 per cent of the premium streaming market.

“The merged Voot/JioCinema/Hotstar/Jio TV would have 184 million unique visitors (unduplicated for June 2024),” says Atul Nandoskar, sales director, Comscore India.

That is a little under half the reach of India’s largest OTT – YouTube.

Technically, the shareholding is split between RIL, Viacom18 and Walt Disney Company. Since RIL owns over 84 per cent of Viacom18, either directly or through Television18, it controls this venture.

It will have five seats on the board, Disney will have three and there will be two independent directors, according to a report MPA did in February.

Uday Shankar, vice-chairperson of the joint entity and former CEO of Disney-Star is the man in charge. He is also the reason this deal happened, say insiders.

Bodhi Tree Systems, which is owned jointly by James Murdoch’s Lupa Systems and Shankar came in as an investor in Viacom18 in April 2022. It currently holds close to 16 per cent of the company.

What that figure translates into, in the merged entity, is not clear. The point, say insiders, is that RIL doesn’t need Bodhi’s money but Murdoch and Shankar’s experience in creating value in media.

What is the strategy? What are the challenges?

“Our digital-first approach will deliver unparalleled content at affordable prices,” said RIL chairman Mukesh Ambani at its Annual General Meeting this week. 

The strategy will be low cost, mass reach, to get the maximum eyeballs across TV and streaming and therefore a larger share of an ad pie, say insiders.

With almost Rs 5,000 crore in operating profits the duo’s entertainment TV business is integral since sports and digital continue to bleed.

Over the last decade video (films, television, streaming) has been re-defined globally by Google, Meta, Netflix, Amazon and others. They offer audiences across genres and geographies at one-fourth the price of broadcast walking away with 70-80 per cent of all digital advertising.

To tackle them, the new venture has to combine the reach of both TV and streaming – it comes to 300 million people a month roughly. That is second only to YouTube’s 462 million.

What is the value and the valuation?

When Disney bought Fox, the company that owned Star India in 2017, the latter was valued between $10-13 billion.

Going by MPA figures, for this deal, Disney India (which is essentially Star) was valued at $3-3.5 billion and Viacom18 an estimated $4 billion with the remainder taken up through RIL-infused cash ($1.4 billion). In March this year Couto said the venture could go for an IPO (Initial Public Offering), say five years down the line, at twice its current value of $8.5 billion.