Arvind's Newsletter

1.Investments in India led by real estate demand, not public capex: HSBC Global

Investment in India is being led more by private real estate demand, HSBC Global said in a report challenging the dominant narrative that public capital expenditure is driving the country’s investments.

"The government is raising capex meaningfully, but PSUs are cutting back, leaving the overall public investment ratio below pre-pandemic levels. Instead, it is private investment that has risen, led by dwellings & structures," the report said.

"This chimes well with the rise in house sales and housing loan growth. But the other important component of investment – ‘machinery & equipment’ – remains weak, and it would be premature to call the start of a new investment cycle, at least at this point," the HSBC report added.

2.Titan's dazzling leap: CaratLane eyes new horizons

Leading jewellery and watch retailer Titan Co. Ltd is gearing up to debut its CaratLane jewellery line in the US in FY25, said a top executive. This move follows the successful overseas launch of the Tanishq brand in 2020.

According to C.K. Venkataraman, managing director, Titan, the company seeks to cater to rising demand from the large Indian diaspora overseas, and Tanishq could end FY25 with 40 overseas stores.

Tanishq inaugurated its first international store in Dubai's Meena Bazaar in October 2020 amid the pandemic, but it did exceedingly well, according to the company’s FY21 annual report. 

Presently, Tanishq has established its presence in North America, GCC and Singapore. In the December 2023 quarter, the brand further expanded its international footprint by adding two new stores in the US, located in Houston and Dallas, along with one more store in Singapore. 

The company's lightweight jewellery brand, Mia, was also introduced in Dubai, expanding Titan’s international jewellery store footprint to 14 outlets, which also includes the Zoya jewellery brand.

3.Ninety-nine of the 100 cities with the world’s highest air pollution levels last year were in Asia, according to a new report measuring exposure to fine particulate matter, tiny pieces of soot that pose health risks. 

More than 80 of those cities were in India, the IQAir report found. The world’s air is generally cleaner than it was in the past century, but a pickup in post-pandemic economic activity and extensive wildfire smoke worsened air quality in places like China, where particle pollution levels rose 6.5%. “Unfortunately things have gone backwards,” the CEO of IQAir’s North American division said. Only seven countries globally — Australia, Estonia, Finland, Grenada, Iceland, Mauritius, and New Zealand — meet the World Health Organization’s air quality guidelines.

4.India’s ‘quid pro quo’ strategy for trade talks; John Reed in Financial Times

In a more mercantilist world, a clear pattern is emerging in India’s trade policy strategy: if companies or countries want freer access to the big and growing markets of the world’s fifth-biggest economy, they must offer a quid pro quo. 

Switzerland and Tesla Motors last week each managed to get India to lower its high, jealously guarded tariff walls and offer improved access to its market of 1bn-plus people.

In both cases, there was something substantial in it for India: a promise, or at least a possibility, of investment. The India-EFTA Trade and Economic Partnership included a pledge by the Swiss and their smaller partners to invest $100bn in India and create 1mn jobs over 15 years — the first such binding commitment in the history of FTAs, according to Narendra Modi’s government.

In the case of cutting EV tariffs, Tesla had been pushing for this as a precondition for investing in a factory in India that, if built, would make smaller, lower-priced EVs. The tariff reduction would allow it to import its foreign-made and pricier cars as it scaled up. While the easing is available to any automaker who invests within three years, Indian officials acknowledge it was drawn up largely with Tesla in mind.

5.Unilever Splits from Ice Cream 

British consumer products giant Unilever will spin off its ice cream division by the end of 2025 as part of a broader restructuring, which will see 7,500 jobs cut for a savings of $870M over three years. The company owns some of the highest-profile ice cream brands in the world, including Ben & Jerry's, Breyers, Walls and Magnum. Shares in the company closed up 3% on the news.

Unilever, the world's largest soap producer, owns a stable of consumer product brands, including Dove, Hellmann's, Vaseline, and Axe. Its capital-intensive, $8B ice cream unit—which depends on highly energy-dependent refrigerated supply chains—has underperformed in recent years, receiving half the profits of its personal care offerings amid declining sales. Recently hired CEO Hein Schumacher announced plans last year to focus on 30 of the company's brands to simplify and accelerate growth.

The move concludes an occasionally tumultuous 24-year relationship with pun-loving Ben & Jerry's, a brand known for its outspoken political views.  

6.Finland kept its spot as the world’s happiest country for the seventh straight year, according to Gallup’s World Happiness Report.

The ranking is based on surveys in over 140 countries that ask respondents to rate their lives, with 10 being the best possible life and zero being the worst. European — specifically Scandinavian — countries dominate the top of the list, buoyed by high happiness evaluations among older residents. Life evaluations in Israel, meanwhile, unsurprisingly fell sharply after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, but since the rankings use a three-year average, the impact to the country’s overall score was muted.

The read the full report below:

7.The keys to a long life are sleep, a good diet, and money, says this Nobel Prize-winning biologist

In recent years, the quest to extend human lifespan has become a major focus of scientific research. Scientists are exploring a wide range of interventions, from dietary changes and exercise regimens to cutting-edge molecular therapies, in the hopes of unlocking the secrets of longevity.

However, Nobel Prize winner Venki Ramakrishnan, who is out with a new book on ageing and death, says the most effective solutions we currently have are surprisingly modest. He also highlights concerns that longevity interventions might exacerbate existing inequalities in health and lifespan. Here is an extract from his interview with GQ.

8.Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy accounted for half its GDP for the first time in 2023. 

The kingdom is the world’s third-largest oil producer, but a 57% surge in investment over the last two years drove the value of its non-oil economy to $453 bn, according to Saudi government statistics, boosted by growth in tourism, arts, and entertainment.

In 2021, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman declared a goal of diversifying the Saudi economy by 2030, including ramping up renewable energy and attracting overseas investment: The government will take this milestone as a sign of success. Other Gulf states are also seeing positive growth in their non-oil sectors, OilPrice.com reported.