Arvind's Newsletter

Issue No #1048

1.How Narendra Modi became India’s influencer-in-chief, opines Barkha Dutt in Rest of World.

"Move over, YouTube comedians and Instagram models. The OG of social media influencers in India is now the country’s prime minister, Narendra Modi. At 73, his deft handling of message and medium underscores his online domination." 

Politics in India today is deeply digital. The viral photograph, the livestream, the WhatsApp forward, the selfie, the meme, the hashtag — everything is a weapon in the political war, as digitisation alters how issues are experienced, debated, and decided on.

And the Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has mastered this craft, while other parties are still playing catch-up.

Political pundits offer different and very compelling reasons for why Modi keeps winning elections: the cult of personality, Hindutva, nationalism, an environment of polarization, and an inchoate opposition. But what many underestimate is how the political matrix has been remade by a society that now devours digital content.

Long before the last general elections, Modi told his cabinet colleagues that the election would be fought on the smartphone. Today, India consumes the largest amount of mobile data per smartphone user in the world. Both fans and critics of Modi argue that India has changed in the decade since he — and the BJP — came to power in 2014. Read on

2.Like, subscribe, and vote: India’s 2024 elections depend on YouTube

As the world’s biggest democracy goes to polls in a few months, election campaign managers have a new mandate: Grow YouTube presence.

Being influential on YouTube is essential for Modi as India gears up for general elections later this year, where the 73-year-old is seeking a third consecutive term. The Google-owned video-sharing platform has emerged as a strong tool for political messaging in the country, partly due to its large user base: YouTube has 467 million users, while Facebook has 314 million and X (previously Twitter) has 27 million, according to digital insights platform DataReportal. 

As many as 87% of YouTube users in India rely on the platform during national news events, according to a 2021 Oxford Economics research report commissioned by YouTube.

3.No longer the idiot box: How smart TV is changing consumption habits, opines Vanita Kohli-Khandekar in Business Standard

Data from Lodestar UM, a media buying agency, shows the price advertisers pay to reach every thousand viewers on connected TV (CTV) is twice that for reaching them on a mobile phone. Often people buy an internet-capable smart television, but use it to watch linear TV using a direct-to-home or cable connection. A smart TV with a broadband connection and used to stream video is CTV.

Watching a show on CTV is a lean-back, big-screen experience, unlike the fleeting, on-the-go mobile watching, especially for premium audiences.

“When streaming took off, advertisers lost access to premium audiences, which went behind a paywall. However, the big screen TV always remained a preferred device of choice. With CTV expanding in reach and consumption, it offers an opportunity for advertisers to reconnect with affluent audiences,” says Mihir Shah, vice-president, Media Partners Asia. He points out that JioCinema’s 25 million connected reach generated 30 per cent of its net advertising revenues for the Indian Premier League, the popular T20 cricket league it streamed.

The way video is being watched and monetised is changing. This is the first thing that stands out as the penetration of smart TVs continues to rise.

“If you take the last five years, the installed base [of smart TVs] should be 40-50 million,” says Navkender Singh, associate vice-president, International Data Corporation India. IDC is a provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events.Of that installed base, 35 million to 40 million are estimated to be CTV homes. That translates into an audience of roughly 200 million people — a fourth of the reach of television, and just under half of those browsing online.

Read on

4.Ex-army strongman leader claims victory in Indonesian presidential election

Prabowo Subianto, the current defense minister, has refashioned himself as a warm and cuddly grandfather online, but critics worry he could reverse democratic reforms, pointing to accusations of human-rights violations against him. Indonesia is the world’s third-largest democracy and the biggest economic player in Southeast Asia, giving it significant influence over trade and security in the region. The election will indicate whether the country will “step confidently onto the global stage, or … be held back by the nationalism, protectionism, and isolationism that have historically defined Indonesian political culture,” an Atlantic Council expert wrote in The Diplomat.

The current president, Joko Widodo, appears to have made an alliance with Prabowo Subianto without explicitly endorsing him, and polls show Prabowo with a healthy lead. But for many, he is associated with Suharto, who ruled with an iron fist from the 1960s to the late 1990s. Prabowo was a general in Suharto’s army and was eventually discharged in 1998 for ordering the kidnappings of student activists.

Domestically, it marks the end of the 10-year term of the popular incumbent president Joko Widodo. He is leaving office with approval ratings of about 70 to 80 percent and this election is essentially a referendum on his legacy. He has transformed Indonesia into one of Southeast Asia’s biggest economic success stories but has also presided over democratic backsliding in the country.

5.Digging into the ancient history of kissing

As Sophie Lund Rasmussen and Troels Pank Arboll, a married pair of researchers, discussed a new genetic study that included a brief history of kissing, they realized something was off. The study traced the origin of the custom to South Asia in 1500 B.C.

“I told Sophie that I knew of even older accounts written in both the Sumerian and Akkadian languages,” said Dr. Arboll, whose expertise is in ancient accounts of medical diagnoses, prescriptions and healing rituals.Their investigation, which analyzed clay tablets from Mesopotamia (modern-day Iraq and Syria) and Egypt, upended the hypothesis that people from a specific region were the first to kiss and tell.

6.MSCI is cutting dozens of Chinese companies from its global benchmarks following a market rout that’s erased trillions of dollars in value from the nation’s stocks. The index provider is removing 66 companies from its MSCI China Index in its latest quarterly review, the highest tally in at least two years. The changes also apply to the MSCI All Country World Index. Stocks to be cut include property developers Gemdale and Greentown China Holdings, as well as China Southern Airlines and Ping An Healthcare and Technology. The removals add to risks for China’s already beaten-down market as index-hugging funds will have to purge these stocks from their portfolios.

7.Warnings that the world is heading toward a “polycrisis” of overlapping geopolitical conflicts may be overblown, The Economist argued.

Global GDP grew last year, labor markets remain strong in many places, and countries like the U.S. and Brazil have put out encouraging economic signals, suggesting the global economy may be more resilient to turmoil than conventional wisdom would suggest. Attacks in the Red Sea also haven’t totally upended markets, since shipping costs make up only a small fraction of the price of goods. It may be possible that “the world no longer minds chaos as it once did, “ the magazine said. But uncertainty still looms, especially when it comes to Russia, the Middle East, and the Taiwan Strait.

8.Bitcoin jumped to $50,000 for the first time in more than two years, staging a remarkable comeback from a series of crypto industry scandals and bankruptcies. 

The wild price fluctuations seen since the introduction of Bitcoin more than a decade ago have long been one of the main attractions to speculators. Originally promoted as an alternative to the traditional financial system, the latest rally has been driven by optimism that last month’s US approval of spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds is leading to mainstream acceptance.