Arvind's Newsletter

1.China reported disappointing economic growth figures and record-high youth unemployment. The new data raised fears of a worsening downturn and imminent deflation in the world’s second-biggest economy — and the attendant risks they carry for the globe. “China’s post-Covid boom is clearly over,” an economist told Reuters, warning that the figures “paint a picture of a bleak and faltering recovery.” Analysts expect Beijing to roll out a stimulus package to combat the slowdown, but Chinese authorities are also worried over sky-high levels of debt, suggesting any fiscal injection will be limited. “We do expect Beijing to introduce a raft of supportive measures,” an expert told Bloomberg. “However, these measures may not turn things around.”

2.The Maharashtra government has given the final approval to the Adani Group’s real-estate arm to redevelop the 620 acres of Dharavi. The group bought the redevelopment rights for $620 million last year.

About a million people live in densely-packed hovels along a highly polluted river, a glittering business district, and an international airport, also operated by the Adani Group. Over 59,000 families will have to be rehabilitated.

2. Dharavi is not just a sprawling slum but a vibrant, though largely illegal, hub of industrial activity. Thousands of tiny units churn out medicines, leather goods, clothes and sundry other products. These are to be reorganised in an industrial zone. Let us see how this managed.

3.Vast Demographic shift: Advantage South Asia & parts of Africa

For decades, the world’s dominant powers have benefited from large working-age populations that help drive economic growth. In the developing world, young populations meant that resources were diverted to raising children, curbing economic opportunity.

But the world’s demographic sweet spots are changing quickly. Aging populations in Europe and China will strain welfare systems. In developing countries, a young labor force will help economic growth. Soon, the U.N. projects, the best-balanced workforces will mostly be in South and Southeast Asia, Africa and the Middle East.

These graphics from the New York Times show how the coming shift could remake the global balance of power.

4.History was made at Wimbledon over the weekend.

First, Czech Republic's Markéta Vondroušová upset No. 6 Ons Jabeur, becoming the lowest-ranked winner and first unseeded woman to win Wimbledon.

And then, Carlos Alcaraz became the first man other than Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, or Andy Murray to win Wimbledon since 2002 — or since before the 20-year-old Alcaraz was born. 

Alcaraz beat Djokovic, the 36-year-old seven-time champion and all-time men’s grand slam record holder, in an almost five-hour epic in which Djokovic took the first set, but the younger man battled back to win over five sets. It was a display of “balletic, creative, endlessly varied grass court tennis creative,” wrote The Guardian’s Barney Ronay. “There is no escape from Alcaraz,” he added, because somebody had to.

5 Germany to de-risk China relationship. But has it learned the lessons from its dependence on Russian gas ?

The German government has adopted its first-ever China strategy with a focus on “de-risking” its relationship with its largest trading partner, which it says is increasingly emerging as a “systemic rival” to the west.

“Germany has changed and so we have to change our China policy too,” said foreign minister Annalena Baerbock. Beijing had become “more repressive internally and more aggressive externally”, she added, and while it remained a partner, its role as “systemic rival” was beginning to “dominate”.

The strategy rejects the notion of “decoupling” from China but stresses the need for Germany to “de-risk” — that is, diversify its supply chains and export markets away from China and so reduce its vulnerability to external shocks.

The strategy document identifies several areas where Chinese actions are heightening risks to Germany’s “security, sovereignty and prosperity,” including, it said, China’s increasingly assertive attempts to reshape the existing rules-based, liberal democratic international order.

China was Germany’s most important trading partner for the last seven years. The challenge is that Germany Inc. doesn’t think it can afford to cut ties with China Inc. In May, the CEO of German automaker Mercedes-Benz said that cutting ties with China would be “unthinkable for almost all of German industry.” Meanwhile, Volkswagen and BMW are continuing to ramp up investments in China, and chemicals giant BASF is forging ahead with a $10 billion investment in southern China.

Berlin’s adoption of a comprehensive policy shows the importance it now attaches to diversifying its supply chains and export markets away from China, so reducing its exposure to external shocks. Its strategy aims to identify vulnerabilities, make German companies more aware of the risks of doing business in China, and make clear Berlin will not bail them out if they get into trouble. The 64-page document is worthwhile reading for those in other EU capitals.

Lets hope Germany had learnt lessons from its recent past.