Arvind’s Newsletter

1.The Hamas horror is also a lesson on the price of populism.

Yuval Noah Harari does an excellent job of explaining why no quarter can be given to those who committed the vile attacks over the weekend, but also provides some of the reasons why Israel, through policies and security failures, was left vulnerable. Some excepts:

"For many years, Israel has been governed by a populist strongman, Benjamin Netanyahu, who is a public-relations genius but an incompetent prime minister. He has repeatedly preferred his personal interests over the national interest and has built his career on dividing the nation against itself. He has appointed people to key positions based on loyalty more than qualifications, took credit for every success while never taking responsibility for failures, and seemed to give little importance to either telling or hearing the truth. The coalition Netanyahu established in December 2022 has been by far the worst. It is an alliance of messianic zealots and shameless opportunists, who ignored Israel’s many problems — including the deteriorating security situation — and focused instead on grabbing unlimited power for themselves."

2.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that “every Hamas member is a dead man” as he formed a national unity government. While US urges restraint on Israel amid fear of regional war.Even before a widely expected Israeli ground operation in response to last weekend’s Hamas attack, the BBC’s security correspondent said much of Gaza hauccessud been “reduced to rubble” while the Palestinian death toll is already over 1,000. Gaza’s only power plant shut down for lack of fuel. Egypt, which borders Gaza, is refusing access to any of the 338,000 displaced people from the conflict. Meanwhile, bodies of Israelis killed in the attacks continue to be found: More than 1,200 are now accounted for. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken landed in Israel today, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reportedly wants to visit.

Hamas is estimated to hold at least 150 hostages, including some foreigners. The failure of Israel’s intelligence service — a U.S. congressman appeared to confirm Egypt’s claim that Israel was warned of something big days before the assault — led to Hamas itself being shocked by the attack’s success. It had hoped, a source told Al-Monitor, to “embarrass [Israel] and return to Gaza with two or three kidnapped Israelis.” If that had happened, it could have negotiated with Israel for rights to build infrastructure and free some prisoners. Instead, Hamas “will face the entire Israeli army inside Gaza.

3.Exxon Mobil's Megadeal

Exxon Mobil Corp. has agreed to buy Pioneer Natural Resources for $59.5B in an all-stock deal, or $253 per share, making it the largest oil-and-gas merger in more than 20 years since Exxon bought Mobil for $75B in 1999.  

The deal allows Exxon Mobil to expand its footprint in the Permian Basin, the highest-producing oil field in the US, which spans West Texas and southeastern New Mexico. With Pioneer being the Permian's largest well operator, the combined entity would have 16 billion barrels of oil equivalent in the Permian and double Exxon Mobil's daily production to 1.3 million barrels of oil equivalent. The daily figure will rise to 2 million barrels by 2027. The transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2024 once it receives regulatory approval.  

The move comes three months after Exxon Mobil, which had a record profit of $56B in 2022, bought pipeline operator Denbury for $4.9B to harness its carbon capture capabilities.

4.New A.I. Tool Diagnoses Brain Tumors on the Operating Table

A new study describes a method for faster and more precise diagnoses, which can help surgeons decide how aggressively to operate.

Once their scalpels reach the edge of a brain tumor, surgeons are faced with an agonizing decision: cut away some healthy brain tissue to ensure the entire tumor is removed, or give the healthy tissue a wide berth and risk leaving some of the menacing cells behind.

Now scientists in the Netherlands report using artificial intelligence to arm surgeons with knowledge about the tumor that may help them make that choice.

The method, described in a study published on Wednesday in the journal Nature, involves a computer scanning segments of a tumor’s DNA and alighting on certain chemical modifications that can yield a detailed diagnosis of the type and even subtype of the brain tumor.

That diagnosis, generated during the early stages of an hourslong surgery, can help surgeons decide how aggressively to operate, the researchers said. In the future, the method may also help steer doctors toward treatments tailored for a specific subtype of tumor.

5.Meet George Jetson:A flying car that anyone can use will soon go on sale, reported The Economist.

Electrically powered vertical-take-off-and-landing (evtol) aircraft—flying cars, to the layman—are an idea whose time has not quite yet come, but is fast approaching. Many firms are jostling with each other, offering designs that range from scaled-up multirotor drones, via things which resemble rigid spiders’ webs, to fixed-wing/helicopter hybrids. None of these, however, will be Jetson-like family saloons with dad (or even mum) at the controls. Those flying them will require a pilot’s licence. Most will probably be used initially as sky-going taxis.

One company has, by contrast, stuck to its guns and carried through its original project to create something which people can purchase and pilot themselves. Helix is a single-seat vehicle, so “flying motorbike” might be a more accurate appellation. It has, however, been carefully crafted by its maker, Pivotal, based in Silicon Valley, to be within America’s rules for microlight aircraft. That means anyone, pilot’s licence or not, can fly it over non-built-up areas. As a result, from next year those with $190,000 stuffed down the back of the sofa will be able to order one for personal use—though they will not be able to take delivery until June.

It has been a hairy ride. Pivotal, known as Opener until October 5th, the day Helix was announced, was founded by Marcus Leng, a Canadian. Mr Leng is a mechanical engineer. In 2011, having built up and sold a manufacturing company, he found himself at a loose end. He had, he says, always been interested in flight, and some back-of-the-envelope calculations he made suggested that electric lift-off of a human-carrying craft, using motors powered by the lithium-ion batteries that were then becoming fashionable, ought to work.

He thus built a prototype and flew it in the garden of his house in Warkworth, Ontario. He called it BlackFly. It was (and still is, for it is preserved in the company’s museum) almost literally a thing of sealing-wax and string. The airframe consisted of carbon-fibre struts held together in at least one place by a chopstick. The propellers were wooden. It rose into the air but once. That flight was, though, the first ever made by a human being in an evtol craft.

Twelve years later, after much tinkering, the firm thinks it has something marketable. On the way, besides changing its location, its name, and the name and livery of its putative product (Helix is largely white, with a red go-faster stripe), it has also changed boss. Mr Leng handed over the reins in 2022, to Ken Karklin, who had previously worked for AeroVironment, a maker of military drones.

The rebaptised aircraft has, nevertheless, changed little in its fundamentals over the years. The struts which held the original together have been replaced by a monocoque body. The chopstick is gone. But it still sports two pairs of wings, one fore and one aft, and eight propellers (two on each wing), meaning it vaguely resembles a squashed “H” when seen in the sky from below. And there is no undercarriage. Instead, its belly is curved in a way reminiscent of a humpback whale’s, so it rocks to stability after landing.

Pilot’s licence or not, buyers will still need to undertake at least some training to fly a Helix. Pivotal insists on this—not least because it worries that an early accident would be catastrophic for sales. For the same reason, the craft’s software will stop the pilot doing anything that does not fit inside its aerodynamic-safety envelope. And if, despite this, something does go wrong, it is fitted with a parachute. Pull the appropriate knob hard and an explosive charge will blast this clear of the fuselage, allowing its canopy to open and carry the aircraft to terra firma.

The Helix’s top speed is a respectable 100kph, but its range is only 30km. And refuelling it is a bit of a pain. Filling up from the mains takes 4½ hours, though a special high-power system similar to those employed for electric cars can bring that down to 75 minutes. Not yet quite the Jetsons, then. But a possible step on—or perhaps above—the road.