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- Arvind's Newsletter
1.Green hydrogen push: India eyes $7-15 billion import substitution; plans $4-12 billion investment
In an ambitious stride toward clean energy, India is positioning itself as a future global leader in the green hydrogen sector, with projections to secure $3-5 billion in exports by 2030.
This move, aimed at reducing the reliance on imported LNG and boosting domestic GDP, involves a strategic investment estimated at $4-12 billion in the green hydrogen industry, a small fraction compared to India's projected oil import bill of $1.0-1.4 trillion over the same period.
A recent report by Santosh Kamath and his team at Alvarez & Marsal highlights India's potential in the burgeoning global hydrogen market, expected to reach $24-36 billion by 2030. With its abundant renewable resources, India is earmarked alongside nations like Chile and Australia as a key player in green hydrogen production and export. This strategy aligns with the global shift towards sustainable energy, positioning India not only as an energy-efficient economy but also as a significant exporter in the green hydrogen market.
India's vision extends to blending green hydrogen with natural gas in city gas distribution networks, fostering broader adoption.The European Union, Japan, and South Korea, with their ambitious consumption targets, emerge as primary import markets, underscoring the potential for India's green hydrogen in the international arena.
As India embarks on this transformative journey, the emphasis on technological innovation and international cooperation becomes paramount, setting the stage for India's leadership in the global transition to sustainable energy.
2.India signed a $100 billion trade deal with four European countries. The agreement with Iceland, Liechtenstein,
Norway, and Switzerland aims to create 1 million jobs in India over the next 15 years.
3.'Oppenheimer's' Big Night at the Oscars
"Oppenheimer" was the big winner at the 2024 Academy Awards (also known as the Oscars) last night, taking home the ceremony's top prize of best picture. The film also nabbed six other awards, including best actor (Cillian Murphy), best supporting actor (Robert Downey Jr.), and best director (Christopher Nolan). "Oppenheimer" (see overview and backdtory) had been up for 13 Oscars in all.
The other big winner of the night was "Poor Things," which took home four Oscars, including best actress (Emma Stone). Da’Vine Joy Randolph won best supporting actress for "The Holdovers." Meanwhile, Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon” was shutout after entering the night with 10 nominations. See the full list of winners here.
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4.The number of Chinese workers in Africa fell by 64% in less than a decade as Beijing’s investment in the continent plummeted.
Chinese firms invested just $1.8 billion in Africa in 2022, down from a peak of $5.4 billion in 2018. The rapid fall largely reflects “the changing priority in domestic Chinese politics,” a report by Chatham House said. As economic growth falls to the slowest rate in decades, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has made investment in security a priority. “If you decide to dramatically spend more money on something, you have to cut back on something else,” one China expert told the Financial Times.
5.Morgan Housel nails it yet again with this brilliant piece on why too much intelligence is not good in general but especially in investing.
This is in line with what great investors have highlighted in the past about how beyond a base level of IQ, it doesn’t influence investing success as much as emotional quotient (EQ) or temperament does. But why does Housel go to the extent of saying too much of intelligence can be harmful? He cites three reasons:
First, the ability and hence inclination of intelligent people to rationalise anything and in turn delude themselves.
Second, smart people may be less inclined to listen to people with less credentials. And finally, having an intellectual reputation makes to difficult to change one’s mind when you need to. But I would encourage you to read full post.
6.Why you should never retire; Bartleby in The Economist.
Pleasure cruises, golf and tracing the family tree are not that fulfilling
In an episode of “The Sopranos”, a popular television series which started airing in the 1990s, a gangster tells Tony, from the titular family, that he wants to retire. “What are you, a hockey player?” Tony snaps back. Non-fictional non-criminals who are considering an end to their working lives need not worry about broken fingers or other bodily harm. But they must still contend with other potentially painful losses: of income, purpose or, most poignantly, relevance.
Some simply won’t quit. Giorgio Armani refuses to relinquish his role as chief executive of his fashion house at the age of 89. Being Italy’s second-richest man has not dampened his work ethic. Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s sidekick at Berkshire Hathaway, worked for the investment powerhouse until he died late last year at the age of 99. Mr Buffett himself is going strong at 93.
People like Messrs Armani, Buffett or Munger are exceptional. But in remaining professionally active into what would historically be considered dotage, they are not unique. One poll this year found that almost one in three Americans say they may never retire. The majority of the nevers said they could not afford to give up a full-time job, especially when inflation was eating into an already measly Social Security cheque. But suppose you are one of the lucky ones who can choose to step aside. Should you do it?
The arc of corporate life used to be predictable. You made your way up the career ladder, acquiring more prestige and bigger salaries at every step. Then, in your early 60s, there was a Friday-afternoon retirement party, maybe a gold watch, and that was that. The next day the world of meetings, objectives, tasks and other busyness faded. If you were moderately restless, you could play bridge or help out with the grandchildren. If you weren’t, there were crossword puzzles, tv and a blanket.
Although intellectual stimulation tends to keep depression and cognitive impairment at bay, many professionals in the technology sector retire at the earliest recommended date to make space for the younger generation, conceding it would be unrealistic to maintain their edge in the field. Still, to step down means to leave centre stage—leisure gives you all the time in the world but tends to marginalise you as you are no longer in the game.
Things have changed. Lifespans are getting longer. It is true that although the post-retirement, twilight years are stretching, they do not have to lead to boredom or to a life devoid of meaning. Once you retire after 32 years as a lawyer at the World Bank, you can begin to split your time between photography and scrounging flea markets for a collection of Americana. You don’t have to miss your job or suffer from a lack of purpose. If you are no longer head of the hospital, you can join Médecins Sans Frontières for occasional stints, teach or help out at your local clinic. Self-worth and personal growth can derive from many places, including non-profit work or mentoring others on how to set up a business.
But can anything truly replace the framework and buzz of being part of the action? You can have a packed diary devoid of deadlines, meetings and spreadsheets and flourish as a consumer of theatre matinees, art exhibitions and badminton lessons. Hobbies are all well and good for many. But for the extremely driven, they can feel pointless and even slightly embarrassing.
That is because there is depth in being useful. And excitement, even in significantly lower doses than are typical earlier in a career, can act as an anti-ageing serum. Whenever Mr Armani is told to retire and enjoy the fruits of his labour, he replies “absolutely not”. Instead he is clearly energised by being involved in the running of the business day to day, signing off on every design, document and figure.
In “Seinfeld”, another television show of the 1990s, Jerry goes to visit his parents, middle-class Americans who moved to Florida when they retired, having dinner in the afternoon. “I’m not force-feeding myself a steak at 4.30 just to save a couple of bucks!” Jerry protests. When this guest Bartleby entered the job market, she assumed that when the day came she too would be a pensioner in a pastel-coloured shirt opting for the “early-bird special”. A quarter of a century on, your 48-year-old columnist hopes to be writing for The Economist decades from now, even if she trundles to her interviews supported by a Zimmer frame; Mr Seinfeld is still going strong at 69, after all. But ask her again in 21 years.
7.If you want to read Alvarez and Marsal’s full thought leadership report on the Green Hydrogen opportunity which I strongly recommend use the link below: