1.Interim Budget 2024-25: Moderating Capex growth with Fiscal Prudence

Since 2024 is an election year, the finance minister presented the Interim Budget or a Vote on Account and the full-fledged budget is expected in July after the formation of the new government. As a Vote on Account is merely an interim authorisation to spend money, and hence there were no significant tax or big bang policy reforms. 

The announced interim budget has strong focus on fiscal consolidation and capex push (though the growth moderated: 11.1% YoY vs 33% in FY24).Fiscal support to states for capex at INR 1.3tn (flat YoY) also continues. While there is a bit of disappointment that there is no direct stimulus to spur consumption, the focus on infrastructure as well as an underlined emphasis on areas such as Road transport, Railways and clean energy, shows that the FM has prioritised long-term growth.

The interim Union Budget 2024 continued to tread the path of fiscal consolidation, with the fiscal deficit target for FY25 at 5.1% of GDP. The gross borrowing estimate for FY25 at INR14.13tn is sharply lower by 8.43% than the FY24(RE).

2.Adani, a Year Later: Investors Are Embracing India’s Humbled Champion , reports Megha Mandavia in Wall Street Journal

A year ago Adani Group, India’s infrastructure poster child, lost over $100 billion in market value in a matter of days following the publication of a short-seller report.

That was then—these days, things are looking up for Adani, at least in the markets. Adani Enterprises, the group’s flagship, has clawed back 90% of the market value it had lost since Hindenburg’s report, alleging stock manipulation and accounting fraud, was published on Jan. 24, 2023. An Adani Green Energy dollar bond, which yielded around 40% last February, now yields less than 8%.

Adani’s recovery has hinged on a mix of real progress on debt, political tailwinds and good luck. It helps that Indian regulators haven’t revealed any smoking guns: the official investigation cleared Adani Group of 22 of 24 possible violations. Adani Group has always denied Hindenburg’s allegations.

Beyond that, the group has begun to deleverage, albeit only at the margin—thanks to both higher earnings and some debt repayment. Gross debt at the group level fell from 2,211 billion Indian rupees, equivalent to around $26.66 billion, in March 2023 to 2,194 billion Indian rupees in September 2023, according to Bernstein Research’s calculations. Meanwhile earnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortization, or Ebitda, at Adani companies were up 47% year over year to $5.3 billion in the first six months of the financial year that will end in March 2024, according to the group. Adani Green Energy’s net debt to Ebitda ratio is now at 7.28, versus 10.8 a year earlier, according to FactSet. That ratio is also significantly down at other group companies.

Besides higher earnings, the group has also managed to attract new investment. GQG Partners, the Qatar Investment Authority and TotalEnergies have pumped $5 billion into Adani-linked entities, some of which has been used to pare debt, free up pledged shares or buy back shares and bonds. Last week, credit rating agency S&P Global said the group has demonstrated that its refinancing needs for 2024 are adequately addressed.

he reasons investors have been willing to slug in more cash despite Adani’s still-high leverage and lingering governance concerns are complex, but strong political and policy tailwinds blowing from New Delhi are probably a key factor.

Adani’s troubles happened to coincide with an enormous push by New Delhi to upgrade India’s infrastructure to take advantage of a once-in-a-generation opportunity to become a manufacturing hub as foreign investors desert China. The simple reality is that, despite Adani’s troubles, there just aren’t that many other good ways to bet on an Indian infrastructure boom.

3.EU agrees €50bn support package for Ukraine

The EU has agreed a deal on a €50bn financial support package for Ukraine after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán caved to pressure from his fellow leaders and rescinded his veto on the aid. The compromise, reached at the start of an emergency EU summit, came after an unprecedented campaign of pressure on Orbán, the bloc’s most pro-Russian member.

Details of the deal were not immediately released. Brussels had been considering both a carrot and a stick: Cash incentives if Hungary lifted its veto, and a threat of withholding all EU funding and even stripping Budapest of its voting rights if it didn’t. It was unclear what made Orbán — who has been “using this opportunity to blackmail” the bloc, one diplomat earlier told the Financial Times — lift his veto. The issue had been made more urgent by Washington’s deadlock over its own $60 billion package.

4.China’s electric-vehicle boom helped it become the world’s top car exporter last year, surpassing Japan, new data showed.

According to China’s customs bureau, one third of the cars exported last year were fully electric, a milestone fueled in part by the rise of BYD, which in 2023 became the world’s largest EV maker. BYD’s success forced it to start its own shipping business, MIT Technology Review reported this week, because fleets designed to carry cars are in short supply.

As a result of growing demand abroad, Chinese companies could start building more factories closer to their customers, similar to what Japanese companies did in the 1980s, an auto analyst at CLSA told AFP.

5.Have you been “coffee badging” at the workplace?

While there’s no statistics on the trend in the Indian landscape, a US report shows that the coffee badging trend is becoming a way for workers to get around return to office mandates. The 2023 State of Hybrid Work report by Owl Labs, a hybrid work technology company, for instance, shows 69% of the surveyed American employees feeling that they were required to be in the office because of traditional work expectations; and 58% of hybrid employees “coffee badge".

Coffee badging may be displayed in ways beyond brief appearances, where employees come to the office not for deep or productive work, but for a social outlet to catch up with colleagues, break the isolation of working remotely, and enjoy some team bonding and camaraderie.

Whichever way, coffee badging appears to reflect a deeper change in traditional work culture where conventional spaces and schedules are viewed as unnecessary and oppressive.

6.This New iPhone iOS 17.3 Feature Makes It Much Harder for Thieves to Ruin Your Life

Apple is making it a lot more difficult for thieves to gain access to your most private information. A new feature called Stolen Device Protection is rolling out now as an over-the-air software update in iOS 17.3, and you should turn it on right away.

After you install iOS 17.3, it should prompt you to turn on Stolen Device Protection. But if you miss that opportunity, just open the Settings app, tap Face ID & Passcode, and then make sure the Stolen Device Protection toggle is on. (If you have an older iPhone with Touch ID, your settings will look different.)

After you enable Stolen Device Protection, your iPhone will require additional authentication for the user to access some information, and it will also prevent certain changes if it detects that it isn’t at a trusted location such as your house or your workplace.

7.The economics of illicit sand markets (Tyler Cowen in Marginal Revolution)

Very few people are looking closely at the illegal sand system or calling for changes, however, because sand is a mundane resource. Yet sand mining is the world’s largest extraction industry because sand is a main ingredient in concrete, and the global construction industry has been soaring for decades. Every year the world uses up to 50 billion metric tons of sand, according to a United Nations Environment Program report. The only natural resource more widely consumed is water. A 2022 study by researchers at the University of Amsterdam concluded that we are dredging river sand at rates that far outstrip nature’s ability to replace it, so much so that the world could run out of construction-grade sand by 2050. The U.N. report confirms that sand mining at current rates is unsustainable. Read on

8.Reliance may pay $2.3 bn for 60% stake in Disney India assets

Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) has agreed to buy 60% in Disney Star’s linear TV and digital businesses in India for $2.28-2.4 billion in a transaction valuing them at $3.8-4 billion, two people aware of the development said.

In the first stage, The Walt Disney Co., Disney Star’s parent and the world’s largest media company, will transfer the Indian TV and digital assets to a new company, the people cited above said on condition of anonymity. RIL will buy 60% stake in this entity.

The transaction will not include Disney Star’s 30% stake in direct-to-home (DTH) company Tata Play, consumer products business, and visual effects studio Industrial Light & Magic (ILM), the first of the two people said.