Arvind's Newsletter-Weekend edition

Issue No. #1132

1.India GDP growth hits 7-quarter low of 5.4% in Q2 amid manufacturing slump

The Indian economy experienced a big jolt in the July-September quarter of 2024-25, with the real GDP growth rate slowing to 5.36%, the lowest in seven quarters, data released by the statistics ministry on Friday showed. Not only was this sharply lower than the projection of 7% by the Reserve Bank of India but also lower than the median estimate of 6.5% by 26 economists in a Mint poll.

The second-quarter data raises concerns about whether India can achieve the central bank’s growth forecast of 7.2% for FY25, which it had retained in its October policy meeting.

“The high-frequency data suggests that festival-linked revival in activity may provide a marginally better growth figure in the second half but overall GDP growth for FY25 is going to be around 100 basis points lower than RBI’s estimate of 7.2%," said Upasana Bhardwaj, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank.

2.India's gig economy may add 90 million jobs, contribute 1.25% to GDP

The gig economy in India has significant potential, with the capacity to create 90 million jobs and contribute 1.25% to GDP by 2030, according to a report by the Forum for Progressive Gig Workers. However, concerns persist about the unfair working conditions faced by gig workers on digital platforms.

A recent report by Fairwork India evaluated 11 platforms, including major players like Swiggy, Zomato, Flipkart, and Amazon, against five principles: fair pay, conditions, contracts, management, and representation. The findings were concerning, with no platform meeting all the criteria across these principles. This highlights the urgent need for improved social security regulations to ensure fair treatment and working conditions for gig workers in India.

3.UK MPs back proposals to legalise assisted dying

 A similar bill was overwhelmingly defeated in 2015, but public opinion and the makeup of Parliament has since shifted. Proponents told MPs about their loved ones’ agonizing final days, and one terminally ill man said he would “want to go peacefully” at a time of his choosing.

 But there are concerns: The policy writer James O’Malley, though in favour of assisted dying, said he was “deeply ambivalent” about the bill, worried it lacked safeguards, and suggested the government should “go away and come back with something better.”

4.Norway-This Is What the World’s First All-EV Car Market Looks Like

Norway has transitioned into an EV-only market seemingly overnight, with the Nordic country on the cusp of becoming the first market in the world to all but eliminate sales of new combustion-powered cars. EVs accounted for 94% of new car sales in October, helped by abundant hydropower and government support.

Drivers are getting used to the new norm, while businesses have had to rethink their business models. Re-fueling stations are becoming recharging stations, and changing their design and products for customers lingering around for longer.

Repair shops are under pressure to service more cars because it takes less time to fix an EV. All in all, it’s an important test case for the rest of the world, even if a similar future remains years, if not decades, away.

5.Something like optimism is rising among Saudi Arabia’s growing female workforce — and it’s boosting the economy

Since 2018, reforms have nearly doubled women’s labour participation rate to 37% — still lagging the US, UK, and regional rival UAE — as the kingdom granted driver’s licenses to women, allowed them to set up businesses without male consent, work while pregnant, and travel alone Bloomberg reports. These changes have added 12% to GDP, according to Capital Economics.

“We are becoming more open and moving toward a different place of exposure,” a Riyadh-based venture capitalist told Bloomberg. Still, gains are uneven: Manal al-Sharif, a prominent women’s rights activist in the kingdom before the reforms, has not returned since leaving in 2017 out of fear of government retribution. Women outside the financial hub of Riyadh or from more conservative families also have fewer opportunities.

6.North Korean hackers have stolen billions in crypto by posing as VCs, recruiters and IT workers

A venture capitalist, a recruiter from a big company, and a newly hired remote IT worker might not seem to have much in common, but all have been caught as imposters secretly working for the North Korean regime, according to security researchers.

Researchers have warned of a sustained attempt by the country’s hackers to pose as prospective employees seeking work at multinational corporations, with the aim of earning money for the North Korean regime and stealing corporate secrets that benefit its weapons program. These imposters have raked in billions of dollars in stolen cryptocurrency over the past decade to fund the country’s nuclear weapons program, dodging a raft of international sanctions. 

7.How to Visit Notre-Dame Cathedral in Paris

After a fire shuttered the beloved Gothic landmark for five years, visitor demand is expected to be high once the doors reopen Dec. 8. Here’s how to plan your visit and what to expect.

The damage required painstaking restoration and rebuilding. But eight restored bells in the northern belfry have already begun ringing in preparation for Notre-Dame’s grand return, which brings with it many new features. Visitors will discover an interior with pristine limestone walls, contemporary liturgical furnishings, restored religious masterworks from the 17th and 18th centuries, and a brand-new cedar reliquary for the crown of thorns, a relic believed to have been used in the crucifixion of Jesus Christ.

Despite President Emmanuel Macron’s commitment to reopening the 860-year-old Gothic building within five years, reaching this point wasn’t easy, said Olivier Ribadeau Dumas, Notre-Dame’s rector. The challenge was met with nearly 2,000 workers and artisans, hundreds of thousands of donations, and a little bit of faith.

8.Is India’s education system the root of its problems?

For most of history the economies of India and China grew in lockstep. In 1970 the countries were almost identically wealthy. But today China’s GDP per person, at around $13,000, is nearly five times India’s. The chasm is traditionally explained by the way their economies opened up. China became the world’s factory, which turbocharged growth. India became its back office. But what shaped these paths?

A big, underrated factor is education policy, suggests a new study by Nitin Kumar Bharti and Li Yang. The researchers at the Paris School of Economics’ World Inequality Lab track how education evolved in both countries from 1900 to 2020. At the beginning of the 20th century, less than 10% of Indian and Chinese children attended school; today almost every child does. But the route to universal education has been strikingly different, and has had profound effects on development.

China took a “bottom-up” approach to schooling. In the 1950s, officials in the newly formed People’s Republic prioritised expanding access to primary and secondary education. Independent India, however, took a “top-down” stance. That meant supporting high-quality universities, such as the Indian Institutes of Technology, at the expense of primary schools. By 1980 93% of Chinese children were enrolled in primary school, but just 1.7% of youngsters were in college; in India, the equivalent shares were 69% and 8%.

Another striking difference is what college-aged youngsters study. In China they are more likely to pursue engineering degrees. In India they favour humanities, business or law. Vocational degrees are also treated more seriously in China. Since the 1980s more than 40% of Chinese youngsters have pursued a vocational education, compared with just 10% in India.

All this created different labour forces as their economies liberalised. In 1988 around 60% of Indian adults were illiterate compared with 22% in China. That hindered Indians from moving out of agriculture into more lucrative jobs. It also lowered their productivity. In addition, China’s higher share of engineering and vocational graduates, combined with more widespread primary schooling, helped its manufacturing sector thrive. India’s relative advantage in tertiary education made it more suitable for services-led growth.

The contrasting approaches to education have historical roots. China’s Qing dynasty leaders focused on vocational skills in the late 19th century to equip their armies. India’s British colonial rulers wanted a school system to churn out administrators to manage their empire. Indian leaders after independence reinforced that bias.

Since then, though, India has tried to fix these issues. A big push increased access to primary schooling in the 2000s—but at the expense of quality. The government is also promoting vocational education. And at the tertiary level, a lot more Indians are studying engineering. Yet it might be too late. Many economists reckon that the era of manufacturing-led growth has bypassed India. A report released in September supported such fears. Of the 1.5m engineering students who will graduate this fiscal year, only 10% are expected to actually land a job in the year after leaving university.