Arvind's Newsletter

1.The Top Risks of 2025

The global think tank Eurasia Group is out with its annual report on the Top Risks for 2025. The group’s Top Risk this year is not a single event. It’s the cumulative impact of the G-Zero leadership deficit on the breakdown of the global order. It calls this risk: G-Zero Wins. Some excerpts from the report on what this means:

“We’re entering a uniquely dangerous period of world history on par with the 1930s and the early Cold War. This geopolitical reality is the force behind all the Top Risks in this year’s report. And the tail risk of something truly catastrophic is getting fatter every day.”

“With little in common beyond a general desire for a more multipolar world, the Global South is neither powerful nor organised enough to lead the world out of the geopolitical recession. India, the strongest and most plausible global leader among developing states, remains a lower-income country, focused on building bridges mainly in support of its national interests. And despite their growing heft and global ambition, states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE lack the standing to drive far-reaching global reforms.”

“For its part, China—the second most powerful country on Earth and only viable US challenger—couldn’t lead even if it wanted to. Not only does it lack the legitimacy and “soft power” needed to attract a stable following, but its ongoing economic woes, combined with President Xi Jinping’s prioritisation of national security and political control, leave Beijing preoccupied with domestic challenges. Meanwhile, China’s partner Russia, a rogue state hemorrhaging human and economic capital, has no plausible claim to leadership.”

Read about all the other Risks in the report

Highlighting the top geopolitical risks for the year ahead, Ian Bremmer, CEO of the group, explores the impact of Donald Trump’s return to power in the US, the breakdown of the US-China relationship, the consequences of a rogue Russia, the future of unchecked AI development and more, plus some bright spots amid these unprecedented challenges. Listen to the interview with Bremmer, hosted by TED’s Helen Walters, was recorded on January 6, 2025.

2.India's 2024 power output growth slowest since Covid-19, shows data

India's electricity generation grew at its slowest pace in 2024 since the Covid-19 pandemic, an analysis of federal grid regulator data showed, hit by a slowdown in the world's fastest growing major economy.

Power output rose 5.8 per cent annually to 1,824.13 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh), an analysis of daily load despatch data from federal grid regulator Grid-India showed.

Growth in power generation averaged 2.3 per cent in the year's second half, nearly a quarter of the first half's rise of 9.6 per cent, the data showed.

The slowdown persists, with manufacturing activity in December recording its weakest expansion of the year amid softer demand. According to Business Standard, analysts predict 6-7% growth in electricity use in 2025, driven by increased residential demand and industrial recovery. Coal’s share in power generation fell to 74.4%, while renewables hit a record 12.1%. However, solar and wind power growth slowed, and hydropower’s share declined despite a 4% recovery.

3.A medicine created by an Indian pharmaceutical company targeting drug-resistant “superbugs” could get US approval this year. 

A microbiology professor described India as a “breeding ground” for antimicrobial resistance (AMR), which occurs when a pathogen grows stronger than a drug meant to treat it. The World Health Organization estimated AMR was directly responsible for 1.27 million deaths worldwide in 2019. Western-made drugs to fight the superbugs don’t work against many bacterial infections seen in India, prompting a search for homegrown solutions, Nikkei Asia reported. The country is known for making cheap generics, but the new findings could lead to a greater focus on “innovative drug production.”

4.Indonesia says $1bn offer from Apple not enough to lift iPhone 16 ban

The sale of iPhone 16s will remain banned in Indonesia after the country said Apple’s $1 billion investment plan was still insufficient to meet local requirements.

• The plan—which includes building an AirTag factory by 2026—marks an unexpected turn just hours after officials approved the construction of the facility. Ultimately, the domestic content requirements are under the purvew of the industry minister, who warned that Apple could be sanctioned for continued non-compliance.

• The initial ban decision happened back in October after the Ministry of Industry said local unit PT Apple Indonesia hadn’t fulfilled the country’s 40% domestic content requirements for smartphones and tablets. 

• Indonesia called the iPhone maker’s $100 million proposal unfair so Apple increased the commitment to $1bn to get the restrictions lifted. The offer also included setting up an AirTag plant on the island of Batam that would employ about 1,000 workers and account for 20% of global production. But in the end, the sweetened bid wasn’t enough. 

5.AI can help detect cancer cases

Artificial intelligence is a powerful tool for detecting breast and ovarian cancer, recent studies suggested. Nearly 500,000 women in Germany were screened for breast cancer, with radiologists using AI to flag mammograms for possible tumours in one group, while the rest were assessed by doctors alone.

Those using AI caught one more cancer case per 1,000 people — seven instead of six — and had fewer false positives. “AI in mammography screening is at least as good as a human reader, and our study shows it’s even better,” one researcher told ScienceNews. 

Another study found AI models outperformed humans in examining ultrasounds for ovarian tumours, which could speed up diagnoses and reduce the need for expert referrals.

6.Why Donald Trump wants Greenland; Richard Milne in Financial Times

US president-elect Donald Trump has refused to rule out military force to take Greenland. But America’s military presence there has long dwarfed the handful of ships, dog sled patrols and single surveillance plane operated by the Arctic island’s security guarantor, Denmark.

Pituffik Space Base, located in the far north of Greenland since the end of the second world war, is home to 200 US military personnel and 450 other forces and contractors from allies, part of Washington’s missile early warning system as well as offering space surveillance and satellite command.

The northernmost US base — only about 1,500km from the North Pole — is the most potent symbol of how vital Greenland is to American security. But its geo-strategic importance is only likely to increase as climate change reshapes the Arctic, opening new trading routes close to North America and putting Greenland at the heart of the growing polar tussle between the US, China, and Russia.

Mikkel Runge Olesen, senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, said: “For the US, the problem is Chinese and Russian interest in the Arctic. The US has started to see the Arctic as a region for geopolitical competition. It’s very important for the US to keep the other great powers out of Greenland.” 

When Trump first expressed interest in buying Greenland in 2019, he framed it as like “a large real estate deal” and emphasised the economic aspects of prising it away from Denmark. This time, his focus has changed. “We need Greenland for national security purposes,” he said on Tuesday, while mentioning the need to deter Russian and Chinese ships.

Beijing has boosted investment in Greenland in recent years, including mining operations, and a Trump ally said the president-elect’s threats against the autonomous Danish territory marked a “strong deliberate message to Beijing.” Melting ice in the Arctic is opening up new maritime shipping routes that China is looking to take advantage of, but increased US interest in Greenland may “alter the cost-benefit scenario” for Beijing, an Arctic geopolitics expert told Nikkei Asia.

7.Samsung plans subscription play for its smartphones

The company is introducing a subscription service for its Galaxy smartphones next month, offering users the option to rent devices for cheaper rates.

Samsung is planning to launch this “AI Subscription Club” with the Galaxy S25 series to give sales a boost. The name sure makes it sound like they are going to ask you to subscribe to AI on the phone, but that’s not what is being suggested by this article and Samsung. They are calling it the “AI Subscription Club” because the devices (including those appliances) have AI built-in, but it’ll be a rental program like Samsung launched with appliances. Initially this service will be available on in South Korea.

8.Energy companies are racing to create shipping-container-sized nuclear “micro-reactors” which could replace on-site generators or electric batteries. 

Several companies, notably Britain’s Rolls-Royce, are building small modular reactors, but they are comparatively large, with a footprint of some acres. Micro-reactors would be less powerful, and would “operate like large batteries, with no workers on site,”the Financial Times reported — they would simply be delivered, plugged in, and left to run.

The resurgent interest in nuclear power is driven by demand from data centres, and is reshaping the energy industry,

Led by Westinghouse, the race to develop “micro-reactors” is based on the notion they can replace diesel and gas generators used by everything from data centres to remote off-grid communities to offshore oil and gas platforms.

“Initially, the idea was there are parts of the economy that are very difficult to decarbonise, especially remote communities that depend on transportable diesel, which is very expensive,” said Jon Ball, head of Westinghouse’s eVinci micro-reactor programme. “But the level of interest has really expanded and we believe this is going to be a significant growth area.”

9.New Wildfires Strain L.A. as Biggest Blazes Burn Unchecked

Los Angeles is surrounded by fire. Unusually strong winds and dry weather are accelerating multiple fires around the city.

The city’s major wildfires have spread, and a new one started overnight in Hollywood Hills. It threatened a wealthy neighbourhood and landmarks synonymous with America’s self-image — the Hollywood sign, the Walk of Fame. Streets near Hollywood filled with traffic as helicopters raced through the sky.

The wildfires have killed at least five people; forced tens of thousands to evacuate; and charred entire neighbourhoods of every socio-economic status, from the scenic West Coast to the inland suburbs. “It wasn’t just that the place was in flames. It was that it seemed to be in flames everywhere at once,” The Times’s Shawn Hubler wrote.

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