Arvind's Newsletter

1.Unlocking the $2 trillion opportunity in India’s Retail

Rs 82 trillion is the total value of India’s retail market, which more than doubled from Rs 35 trillion in 2014, according to a new report by Boston Consulting Group and the Retailers Association of India. This steady 8.9% annual growth is projected to accelerate over the next decade, with the market expected to surpass Rs 190 trillion by 2034. The study credits rising affluence and digital payments for fueling consumption, though 58% of purchases remain offline. However, such bullish forecasts may seem overly optimistic, especially as India’s GDP growth is slowing to 6.5% amid global headwinds and tighter liquidity.

2.Adani revives US investment plans as Trump moves fuel hopes: Financial Times

“The Adani Group has revived plans for major investments in the US, according to people familiar with the matter, despite criminal charges there against the Indian conglomerate’s billionaire founder.

The infrastructure-focused business group has reactivated potential plans to fund projects in US sectors such as nuclear power and utilities as well as an east coast port, said four people close to group founder and chair Gautam Adani.

Adani, one of India’s most powerful tycoons, first pledged to invest $10bn in the US, creating up to 15,000 jobs, following the election last year of Donald Trump as president. Those plans were widely thought to have been kicked into the long grass just weeks later when Adani and seven others were indicted by US authorities on charges related to an alleged $265mn Indian solar energy bribery scheme.

But one of the people close to Adani said there had been “big relief” within the conglomerate when Trump earlier in February ordered a halt to enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, a move they said heightened expectations the cases against him would eventually collapse.”

3.Third-party vehicle insurance: Insurers in distress over three-year rate pause: Mint

India’s insurance regulator hasn’t changed the policy rates for third-party vehicle insurance for nearly three years, even to adjust for inflation. Insurance companies now say they might instead chose to focus on other segments that make more business sense.

4.Tata Capital eyes $11 billion valuation for India IPO

Tata Group is seeking a valuation of as much as $11 billion for its financial services unit in what could be India’s biggest initial public offering this year, according to people familiar with the development.

Tata Capital Ltd.’s IPO could raise as much as $2 billion, the people said, asking not to be identified because the deliberations are private.

5.Europe steps up for Ukraine, but is it enough?

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, European leaders from France, Italy, Germany, and other nations, as well as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, spent the weekend in London crafting a European-led plan to bring peace to Ukraine.

The 11th-hour diplomacy followed last Friday’s contentious press conference between Zelensky, US President Donald Trump, and Vice President JD Vance in the Oval Office, which ended in a shouting match and the expulsion of the Ukrainian delegation from the White House.

What was agreed? In addition to a £2.2 billion loan announced on Saturday, Starmer pledged £1.6 billion in UK export finance on Sunday to allow Ukraine “to buy more than 5,000 air defense missiles, which will be made in Belfast, creating jobs in our brilliant defense sector.” Leaders also agreed to form a “coalition of the willing” to draw up a peace plan to take to Trump, as well as a multinational peacekeeping force, with troops from France, the UK, and other nations whom Starmer said would individually announce their participation. An economic deal between Ukraine and the US appears to be off the table for the moment.The big question remains whether Ukraine can survive without American assistance, opines Gideon Rachman of Financial Times.

What’s at stake for Europe? Everything. As Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer observed, it’s do-or-die time – literally. “The Europeans feel like there is a gun to their head from the East with the Russians as a direct national security threat, and now a gun to the head from the West, a country that does not support core values of collective security, of rule of law, and of territorial integrity. And that means that the Europeans have to now get their act together immediately – or else.”

6.Welcome to the Zero Sum Era. Now How Do We Get Out? Damien Cave in New York Times

“Zero-sum thinking is the belief that life is a battle over finite rewards where gains for one mean losses for another. And these days, that notion seems to be everywhere. It’s how we view college admissions, as a cutthroat contest for groups defined by race or privilege. It’s there in our love for “Squid Game.” It’s Silicon Valley’s winner-take-all ethos, and it’s at the core of many popular opinions: that immigrants steal jobs from Americans; that the wealthy get rich at others’ expense; that men lose power and status when women gain.

But nowhere is the rise of our zero-sum era more pronounced than on the world stage, where President Trump has been demolishing decades of collaborative foreign policy with threats of protectionist tariffs and demands for Greenland, Gaza, the Panama Canal and mineral rights in Ukraine. Since taking office, he has often channeled the age he most admires — the imperial 19th century.

Mr. Trump may not be alone in this. Vladimir Putin of Russia and Xi Jinping of China have also displayed a zero-sum view of a world in which bigger powers get to do what they want while weaker ones suffer. All three leaders, no matter what they say, often behave as if power and prosperity were in short supply, leading inexorably to competition and confrontation.

Until recently, the international order largely was built on a different idea: that interdependence and rules boost opportunities for all. It was aspirational, producing fourfold economic growth since the 1980s, and even nuclear disarmament treaties from superpowers.

“The reversion to zero-sum thinking now is in some ways a backlash against the positive-sum thinking of the post-Cold War era — the idea that globalization could lift all boats, that the U.S. could draft an international order in which nearly everyone could participate and become a responsible stakeholder,” said Hal Brands, a global affairs professor at Johns Hopkins University and senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. “The original Trump insight from 2016-17 was that this wasn’t happening.” Read on

7.Leadership relies on balancing these two forces. Here’s a simple way to approach it: Fast Company

Leadership lies at the intersection of driving outcomes and cultivating human connection. Balancing these forces—what we call “edge” and “soul”— that means combining these complementary traits is the hallmark of leaders who make a genuine impact.   

8.EU eases emissions rules on petrol cars to help industry

Brussels will ease new emissions rules for combustion engine cars, allowing the embattled auto industry to avoid fines following a slower-than-expected transition to electric vehicles. 

The European Commission will uphold its 2035 ban on petrol cars but allow flexibility over the next three years in how carmakers meet stricter CO₂ emission targets entering into force this year, according to Commission president Ursula von der Leyen.

“The targets stay the same. But it means more breathing space for the industry and it also means more clarity,” von der Leyen said on Monday in a news conference.

Under the rules, which were designed as part of the bloc’s green transition, new passenger cars and vans must reduce their C0₂ emissions by 15 per cent compared to 2021 levels.

9.A record number of UK citizens applied for Irish passports in 2024, as Britons seek “backdoor” access to the European Union. 

Britain is in an economic malaise, and post-Brexit restrictions have made travel and work within the EU difficult for British passport holders. 

Many Britons are also keen on buying holiday or retirement homes on the continent, but European countries are increasingly restricting that option, with Spain introducing a 100% tax on non-EU property buyers and Portugal scrapping easy routes to citizenship for wealthy foreigners, the Financial Times reported.

Middle-class Britons are also migrating to the UAE in large numbers, Arabian Business said.

10.A Big Night for 'Anora'

"Anora" was the big winner at the 2025 Academy Awards last night, taking home the ceremony's top prize of best picture. The film also nabbed four other awards. Director Sean Baker won best original screenplay, film editing, and directing, while 25-year-old Mikey Madison won best actress for the film's title role. Baker is the first to win four Oscars in one night for one film (including best picture); Walt Disney also won four Oscars in one night but for four different movies.

The historical drama "The Brutalist" secured three awards, including best actor (Adrien Brody). Kieran Culkin won best supporting actor for comedy-drama "A Real Pain," and Zoe Saldaña won best supporting actress for crime musical "Emilia Pérez," which also won best original song. Fantasy musical blockbuster "Wicked" and science-fiction epic "Dune: Part Two" won two awards each. View the full list of winners below.

11.Pitch dating, or how to sell your single friend with a PowerPoint presentation

Dissatisfaction with dating apps is driving young French people to try “pitch dating,” in which one person — typically armed with a slideshow — tries to convince an audience to give a friend a chance at romance.

Paris has hosted pitch dating events for years; a recent gathering saw one young woman extol her gym enthusiast, foodie friend using a Spotify-inspired presentation to a crowded Parisian bar, Le Monde reported.

Apps are not for everyone: Tinder’s monthly users fell from 75 million in 2021 to 56 million last year, and young Parisians are increasingly looking for potential partners somewhere “other than as an identity reduced to pixels,” one French event organizer said.