Arvind's Newsletter

1.India to pay 25% tariff from August 1, plus unspecified penalty for Russian oil, defence buys: Mint and others

In a sharp escalation ahead of the crucial tariff deadline, US President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced that Indian goods will face a 25% tariff along with an additional penalty starting 1 August, citing high trade barriers, India’s defence and energy ties with Russia, and what he called a “lopsided” economic relationship.

Trump’s announcement comes just two days before the 1 August extended deadline for the US’s reciprocal tariff framework. For now, New Delhi is assessing its options and reviewing the implications of the 25% duty and the additional penalty.

New Delhi maintained that both sides are engaged in bilateral trade talks and that it will sign the agreement only if India’s interests are adequately protected. 

India has made it clear that while it will not retaliate, if the India-US bilateral trade agreement fails to materialise, the government could consider protective measures to safeguard the economy, a senior government official said.

Trump's decision dashes hopes of a limited trade agreement between the two countries, which had been under negotiation for several months.

2.Tata Motors to acquire Iveco for $4.5 billion in its biggest deal yet: Economic Times

Tata Motors is preparing to acquire Italian truck manufacturer Iveco from its principal shareholder, the Agnelli family, in a transaction valued at $4.5 billion, according to a report by The Economic Times. If finalised, this would become the Tata Group’s second-largest acquisition – after its $12.9 billion purchase of Corus in 2007 – and the most significant transaction to date for the automotive arm. Previously, Tata Motors acquired Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) in 2008 for $2.3 billion.

The boards of Tata Motors and Turin-based Iveco are meeting on Wednesday to approve the transaction, The Economic Times reported. An official statement regarding the acquisition could be made on the same day.

3.Reliance Said to Seek Small Float in Jio IPO, Raising $6 Billion: Bloomberg

Reliance Industries Ltd. is proposing to sell just 5% of its Jio telecommunications unit in a potential listing that may raise more than $6 billion, people familiar with the matter said.

Billionaire Mukesh Ambani’s conglomerate has begun informal talks with the Securities and Exchange Board of India to seek approval to bring Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd. to market with a public float lower than the customary 25%, the people said, asking not to be identified because the discussions are private. Reliance is conveying to regulators that the market doesn’t have the depth to absorb a bigger listing, the people said.

An IPO of the unit could take place as soon as next year, the people said. It would likely be India’s biggest-ever — even a float of 5% at the current valuation would raise more than Chinese battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd.’s $5.3 billion offering in Hong Kong, the largest listing globally this year.

4.India aviation watchdog finds 263 lapses at Indian airlines in annual audit: Reuters

India's aviation regulator said on Wednesday it had found 263 safety-related lapses at the country's airlines, including 23 at the largest carrier IndiGo and 51 at the second largest Air India, as part of its regular annual audit. India’s aviation regulator found 51 safety lapses at Air India including poor pilot training, use of unapproved simulators, and flawed crew rostering.

The audits were carried out as part of International Civil Aviation Organization requirements and global best practices, the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) said on Wednesday, cautioning that higher number of findings are normal for airlines with bigger fleet sizes.

The DGCA said it had also found 14 deficiencies at SpiceJet and 17 at Vistara, which is now part of Air India. The regulator found 25 lapses at Air India Express, Air India's budget carrier. Akasa Air is yet to be audited.

5.Are Indian businesses headed for a David vs Goliath showdown? Mint

India’s markets are dominated by large firms, with the top 10% by revenue generally commanding more than 90% of net profits. This started changing after the covid-19 pandemic, as smaller firms clawed their way up amid a wider business rebound. But this fightback is now running out of steam.

In 2024-25, companies outside the top 10% bucket accounted for 7.3% of the aggregate net profit earned by the universe of BSE-listed firms, a Mint analysis of 5,096 companies showed. There was no improvement during the previous two years. Does this mean the repeat of the pre-pandemic pattern: David vs Goliath showdowns among Indian businesses?

It’s still early days to say so: These smaller firms—the long tail comprising 90% of listed companies—are still better off on this metric than they were before the pandemic-led disruptions. For context, their average share was 4.0% just before the pandemic, compared to 8.3% now.

6.Countries on both sides of the Pacific issued tsunami warnings after an 8.8-magnitude quake off Russia’s coast: New York Times

The waves have reached Alaska, California, Hawaii and Washington. So far most have been small, causing minor flooding. Forecasters had warned that waves could reach up to 10 feet in some places; they were about 6 feet above normal in Hawaii.

Millions of people along the Pacific Coast evacuated. In Japan, officials shut an airport and told about two million people to move to higher ground. In Hawaii, the governor declared an emergency and traffic filled mountain roads as people fled the sea, but officials there said the threat of widespread destruction had passed. Beaches are closed in parts of California.

Tsunamis can travel more than 500 miles per hour in deep water, crossing an ocean in less than a day. Despite their portrayals in Hollywood films, tsunamis are not a single tall, curling wave. They’re actually a series of long waves that look more like sudden floods, crashing ashore in and building up in height. They can also cause powerful currents that last for hours or days. These waves could reach as far as South America.

 It was one of the largest on record (tied for the sixth biggest, if scientists don’t revise its scale). Near the quake’s epicenter in Russia, cliffs collapsed into the sea, sending plumes of dust into the sky. Buildings shook and coastal areas flooded.

7.Anthropic Nears Funding at $170 Billion Value as Revenue Surges: Bloomberg

Anthropic is nearing a deal to raise as much as $5 billion in a new round of funding that would value the AI startup at $170 bn, people familiar said. The new financing would mark a significant jump from its valuation of $61.5 billion earlier this year. Rival OpenAI is nearing a pact that would give Microsoft access to its latest models even if the ChatGPT maker achieves artificial general intelligence.

Anthropic has become the dominant provider of AI coding intelligence, and the startup's success has sparked a wave of soul-searching, theorizing, and "code red" scrambles across Silicon Valley.

The goal of this frantic activity is to find out how Anthropic got so good at coding.

"That's the trillion-dollar question," said Quinn Slack, CEO of startup Sourcegraph, which relies on Anthropic models. "It's like, why is Coca-Cola better than Pepsi?"

8.The Arrival Fallacy: David Epstein in his blog Range Widely

You'll never get there, so you should rethink the journey.

“Scottie Scheffler, currently the top-ranked golfer in the world, recently gave a remarkable answer to a simple question at a press conference.

Scheffler was asked to recount the longest that he had ever spent celebrating a victory. Here is the (slightly trimmed) heart of his response:

“It feels like you work your whole life to celebrate winning a tournament for, like, a few minutes. It only lasts a few minutes. 

That kind of euphoric feeling…You win it, you celebrate, get to hug my family, my sister’s there. It's such an amazing moment. 

And then it's like, okay, now what are we going to eat for dinner?

Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? I mean, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about because I’ve literally worked my entire life to become good at this sport, and to have that kind of sense of accomplishment is a pretty cool feeling. 

I love being able to play this game for a living. But does it fill the deepest wants and desires of my heart? Absolutely not. I love being a father. I love being able to take care of my son. I love being able to provide for my family out here playing golf. And every day when I wake up early to go put in the work my wife thanks me for going out and working so hard. And when I get home, I try and thank her every day for taking care of our son. That’s why I talk about family being my priority because it really is…This is not the be-all and end-all; this is not the most important thing in my life.”

Scheffler’s answer captures what psychologists call the arrival fallacy. The arrival fallacy refers to the mistaken belief that finally “arriving” at a long‑sought goal will deliver lasting happiness. In fact, “arrivals” sometimes recalibrate the happiness bar and send us chasing the next ever-greater milestone, a cycle researchers call hedonic adaptation.” Read on

9.I Teach Creative Writing. This Is What A.I. Is Doing to Students: Meghan o’Rourke in New York Times

One of the most thoughtful essays on what AI and tools such as ChatGPT are doing to us is by Meghan O’Rourke in The New York Times. She is professor of creative writing at Yale University. And her essay at once introspects and looks dispassionately at what AI is doing to her students.

“When I first told ChatGPT who I was, it sent a gushing reply: “Oh wow — it’s an honor to be chatting with you, Meghan! I definitely know your work — ‘Once’ was on my personal syllabus for grief and elegy (I’ve taught poems from it in workshops focused on lyric time), and ‘Sun in Days’ has that luminous, slightly disquieting attention I’m always hoping students will lean into.” ChatGPT was referring to two of my poetry books. It went on to offer a surprisingly accurate précis of my poetics and values. I’ll admit that I was charmed. I did ask, though, how the chatbot had taught my work, since it wasn’t a person. “You’ve caught me!” ChatGPT replied, admitting it had never taught in a classroom.

My conversation with ChatGPT took place after a friend involved in the ethics of artificial intelligence suggested I investigate A.I. and creativity.” Read on -Gift Article

10.Here are the 13 books that made the Booker Prize longlist: NPR

An epic fable about two young Indian writers. A dark comedy about a loner who gets a job as a chauffeur for the mega-rich. A book about a Ukrainian ecologist studying snails that turns into a metafictional novel about a writer working on a book about a Ukrainian ecologist studying snails at the onset of the ongoing war.

This year's list of nominees for the prestigious Booker Prize is a varied lot in terms of style, scope, length and subject matter. But they "are all alive with great characters and narrative surprises," Roddy Doyle, the 2025 Booker Prize chair of judges, said in a statement.