Arvind's Newsletter

1.Oil Markets and Bond yields are surging, while India rupee falls to record low

Oil markets got a shock when US President Joe Biden announced the most sweeping and aggressive sanctions yet on Russia’s oil trade just days before leaving the White House. Brent and West Texas Intermediate surged Monday to a 4-month high. The measures, which target large exporters, insurance companies and more than 150 tankers, are putting the spotlight on China and India, which have benefited from discounted Russian crude since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. The new sanctions are expected to disrupt oil supplies to China and India, forcing both nations to look for alternative sources in regions like the Middle East and Africa. This shift could drive up oil prices and freight costs, making fuel more expensive for consumers in India.

Citi estimates up to 30% of Russia’s so-called shadow fleet of tankers could be affected, threatening as much as 800,000 barrels a day. The jump in prices may also provide a challenge for central bankers, including the Federal Reserve, if it leads to stickier inflation.

2.A steady increase in US government bond yields is fuelling fears of mounting risks for the global economy.

The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has gained almost a percentage point in recent months, an increase that reflects a widening consensus that the US economy will keep growing at pace, incoming President Donald Trump will likely drive increased borrowing, and the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer than previously expected. The impact could be significant, with higher yields not just raising borrowing costs for homeowners and small businesses, but potentially hitting a stock market bull run, and increasing risks for the global economy.

3.Rupee falls to all time low

The oil surge, along with a rallying greenback, is weighing on India’s rupee, which fell to a record low and past a key psychological level of 86 per US dollar. A strong outlook for the American economy led Goldman to upgrade its forecast for the dollar, which it sees gaining about 5% in the coming year. Meanwhile, the rupee is expected to extend losses on slowing growth and foreign fund outflows.

4.Maha Kumbh: How gods drive India's consumer economy

Maha Kumbh Mela, starting today at Prayagraj, is the world's largest human gathering with significant economic implications. Over 400 mn people are expected, leading to an estimated Rs 200 bn in spending. Major brands are investing heavily in advertising to tap into this event. This festival highlights the crucial role of festivals in driving India's consumer economy.

India's leading companies hope to capture eyeballs and test new products at the Mela. Brands are estimated to spend about Rs 3,600 crore on advertising and marketing around Maha Kumbh, about 25% of which is estimated to be allocated for outdoor advertising.

5.North Korean Soldiers Captured in Ukraine

A pair of North Korean soldiers fighting for Russia were captured by Ukrainian forces, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed over the weekend. It marks the first time North Korean forces have been taken alive and held for questioning since their arrival at the front lines. 

While estimates vary, analysts believe North Korea sent upward of 10,000 troops to assist Russia sometime in October. The group represents less than 1% of North Korea's 1.3 million-person military—though how effective they are is unknown, as the country hasn't deployed troops in a large-scale combat scenario since the Korean War in 1950-53.

6.Being a Team Player: Why College Athletes Succeed in Business

A study by Prof. Paul Gompers  of Harvard Business School of more than 400,000 Ivy League athletes probes how the rigours of college sports can help people climb the corporate ladder faster and into higher-paying positions.

Persistence. Teamwork. Grit and grace in victory and defeat. Intercollegiate varsity sports may build such skills that employers prize—and that later propel former players into management roles faster than their classmates, suggests a recent study tracking the careers of Ivy League athletes.

Members of these colleges’ sports teams secure higher-level jobs and better pay after graduation than their non-athlete peers, finds the analysis of more than 400,000 Ivy Leaguers over the past half-century. Ivy jocks tend to earn some 3.4 percent more during their careers and are more apt to land in C-suite roles than their classmates, says Paul Gompers, the Eugene Holman Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School, who is one of the study’s co-authors.

7.The Anti-Social Century: Americans are spending more time alone now than ever before in recorded history.

This phenomenon, which The Atlantic’s Derek Thompson dubbed “the anti-social century,” was initiated by the advent of the automobile and television, and, more recently, turbocharged by smartphones and the pandemic.

People are dining out less with friends and foregoing gathering spaces like movie theatres, while fewer young people are learning to drive or going on dates. The shift to self-isolation is rewiring culture and politics, “making society weaker, meaner, and more delusional,” Thompson argued.

The subsequent lack of mutual understanding and productive disagreement, he added, could help explain why some progressives were unable to grasp Donald Trump’s broad electoral appeal. 

8.How exercise may be the ‘most potent medical intervention ever known’

It's been well known for many decades that exercise provides many benefits to our health. But a new scientific consortium is revealing new insights into just how profound exercise can be for the human body. William Brangham discussed more with Euan Ashley, a professor of cardiovascular medicine and genetics at Stanford University and the newly named chair of its department of medicine in this interview the transcript of which is below.

9.Some predictions for 2025: Bloomberg

AI will surpass you this year: “By the end of 2025, it will be evident to most educated observers that the best AI models can beat most experts on intellectual tests. It will beat me on an economics test, I have no doubt.” — Tyler Cowen, Bloomberg Opinion

“Fusion’s gonna work."That’s what OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said in a wide-ranging interview with Bloomberg Businessweek that’s worth reading in full (and was published few days back in my newsletter) — Josh Tyrangiel, Bloomberg Businessweek

Alzheimer's treatments could be the next Ozempic: “Novo Nordisk is currently testing whether [semaglutide, the medication in drugs like Ozempic] can benefit patients with early Alzheimer’s disease. Late-stage trial results are expected in the second half.” — Lisa Pham, Bloomberg News

Sequels will continue to dominate Hollywood: “The top three movies will likely be sequels to Avatar, Jurassic Park and Zootopia. The top 10 should include sequels or reboots of Wicked, Superman and Captain America, and possible new installments of Mission: Impossible, Fantastic Four and Snow White.” — Lucas Shaw, Bloomberg News 

The Palisades fire could be the costliest ever: And “losses from the fires ‘could push insurance markets over the brink in California,’ said Michael Wara, a senior researcher for climate and energy at Stanford University and a wildfire expert.” — Leslie Kaufman, Bloomberg Green

10.Should you start lifting weights? The Economist

Barbells; chalk; the clang of iron plates. Strength training is having a moment. Planet Fitness, one of America’s biggest gym chains, is cutting back on treadmills in favour of power cages and trap bars. Even Peloton, a purveyor of expensive exercise bikes to the aspirational classes, is picking up the dumbbells—it now has an app targeted at strength training, rather than the cardio workouts on which it built its brand.

Gym fads come and go. But the rise of pumping iron will be welcomed by doctors and public-health types, who have for many years been trying to persuade the public that while it is good to be fit, it is even better to be fit and strong. In 2010 the World Health Organisation added a recommendation of two sessions of muscle-strengthening exercise a week to its exercise guidelines; many governments have followed suit (Japan, for example, updated its advice in 2024).

Few people have heeded the advice, however. A study published in 2020 estimated that although around half of Western adults reported meeting the weekly guidelines for cardiovascular exercise such as jogging or cycling, only between 10% and 30%, depending on the country, claimed to meet the minimum for strength work.

There’s no doubt cardio is good for you—it lowers blood pressure, cuts the risk of heart disease, strokes and some kinds of cancer, and may even help treat depression. Fit people live up to seven years longer than couch potatoes. Being strong offers many of the same benefits. In the same way that bones are more than just scaffolding for the body (they also produce blood cells, for instance), muscle does more than merely move limbs. It also helps regulate metabolism, insulin sensitivity and cholesterol levels. The evidence is less robust than for cardio, but a review published in 2022 concluded that regular strength training seems to reduce the risk of heart diseases, diabetes and cancer.

Much of the medical interest in strength exercise, though, comes from its ability to prevent, or treat, sarcopenia. This is the decline in strength and muscle size that accompanies ageing, and which doctors increasingly think should be classified as a disorder in its own right. The body’s muscles naturally begin to shrink in one’s 30s and that loss is disproportionately from the powerful, short-acting “type 2” fibres that are responsible for explosive strength.

That process gathers pace in a person’s 60s and 70s. The result can be frail and unsteady people struggling with what doctors call “activities of daily living”, such as getting out of a chair or going out independently. Lack of muscle increases the risk of falls, a big killer of the elderly; makes it harder to recover from injuries and illness; and can worsen the prognosis of cachexia, the rapid muscle-wasting that often accompanies diseases such as cancer or heart failure.

With most of the world ageing rapidly, sarcopenia is only going to become a bigger problem. It could even be aggravated by the popularity of GLP-1 drugs like Wegovy. Some of the weight lost from people taking these drugs seems to come from shedding muscle rather than fat, which is not so healthy.

Though some degree of decrepitude is inevitable with age, the evidence suggests that, even for people in their 80s, a bit of pumping iron can work wonders. As so often in medicine, it is better to prevent a disease from taking hold in the first place than to try to cure it afterwards. The squat rack beckons.