Arvind's Newsletter

1.US, India eye trade reset as Trump plans talks with Modi; on the other hand Trump also urges EU to impose 100% tariffs on China, India to pressure Putin: Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday his administration is continuing negotiations to address trade barriers with India and that he would talk to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in a sign of a reset after weeks of diplomatic friction.

Trump, in a marked shift of tone, said he looked forward to speaking to Modi in the "upcoming weeks" and expressed optimism that they could finalize a trade deal.

On the other hand, in another statement Donald Trump urged EU officials to hit China and India with tariffs of up to 100% as part of a strategy to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to a U.S. official and an EU diplomat.

2.BYD’s senior management set to visit India as Modi-Xi reset ties: Economic Times

China’s BYD is renewing its efforts to expand into India as diplomatic relations improve, potentially launching its Atto 2 electric SUV to challenge local automakers. With eased travel restrictions, key personnel will assess the Indian market and factory. Despite high import levies, BYD aims for competitive pricing.

The Shenzhen-based carmaker already has begun securing visas for senior managers and engineers that will enable the company to restart training programs, service machinery and assess the state of its factory in southern India, they added.

Clearly the interest of BYD is because India is now among the fastest-growing electric vehicle markets in the world, as over 1 million EV units were sold in the country in 2024-25.

3.India's infra investment trusts look to list amid push for wider investor base: Reuters

India's privately-listed infrastructure investment trusts (InvITs) are set to debut on stock exchanges, with at least three IPOs slated for this financial year, aiming to broaden investor participation and enhance liquidity for existing stakeholders.

InvITs are investment schemes similar to mutual funds that allow individuals and institutions to directly invest in infrastructure projects and earn a share of the income generated.

Currently, the Securities and Exchange Board of India - the markets regulator - has granted licenses to 26 domestic InvITs, of which five are publicly listed and several others are in the pipeline.

The National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) aims to raise up to 100 billion rupees ($1.13 billion) by launching a publicly-listed road InvIT within this fiscal that started on April 1, according to two sources who did not want to be named as the matter is private.

4.How Indians are paying a premium for better education: Mint

For decades, private education has offered a way to escape the struggling government system for those who can afford to spend more money on better learning. On top of that, private coaching has become an important aspect of the education system, adding to the cost of education.

The results of a new survey, The Comprehensive Modular Survey: Education (April-June 2025), released late last month, shed light on these trends in India. The data, which covered 221,617 persons in 52,085 households, showed that 51% students were enrolled in private (unaided) schools, even as the average household expenditure on them can be 10 times more than that in government schools.

A Mint analysis of the data shows that the household average spending on private (unaided) schools at the pre-primary level can be as much as 35 times that of government schools. The gap is lowest at the higher secondary level (class XI-XII), but private education can still cost 5.6 times more than government schools. The yawning gap assumes more importance as enrollment in private schools has seen a steady rise in recent years, with the education ministry in May asking states to take measures to reverse the trend, media reports said.

5.From champagne to cash: How India’s richest are fuelling a wealth management frenzy: Mint

The top 1% of Indian households hold assets worth an astounding $11.6 trillion, of which around a quarter is in financial assets. That wealth is fuelling a boom in the nascent wealth management industry.

Wealthy Indian families have traditionally relied on a mix of self-management, trusted family accountants, and conventional bank channels (often with ‘privileged banking’ verticals) to oversee their finances. As a result, specialised wealth managers hold only around 11% of the $2.7 trillion market at present.

However, the dynamics are now changing towards specialization, aided with the rise of the next generation of uber-rich, who are more financially savvy. Other nouveau riche members such as startup founders and C-suite executives already have much of their wealth in liquid financial form rather than tied up in land or other traditional assets. At the same time, financial markets themselves have grown more complex, with global diversification, alternatives, and structured products becoming increasingly important, necessitating the need for specialized (and customised) advice.

According to Bernstein estimates, this $2.7 trillion pool is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13% over the next decade to reach $9 trillion by 2034-35, propelled by the broader trend of financialization of assets. Goldman Sachs, too, noted in a report last month that higher household savings contribute to a larger pool of investable assets, “which would likely fuel demand for professional wealth management services".

6.Murdoch seals $3.3 bn succession deal to hand empire to eldest son: Financial Times

“Rupert Murdoch has resolved a bitter succession battle and ensured that his media empire will retain its conservative political slant under eldest son Lachlan after buying out three of his children for $3.3bn.

Each of those three Murdoch siblings — James, Elisabeth and Prudence — would receive $1.1bn apiece through a partial share sale by the family trust, according to people familiar with the matter. In exchange, they would give up their ownership interests in News Corp and Fox.

The settlement means that when Rupert Murdoch dies, Lachlan will inherit control of his sprawling media conglomerate, which includes Fox News, The Wall Street Journal, the New York Post and The Sun in London. The multibillion-dollar payout resolves a decades-long family feud that has mesmerised media and political circles and helped inspire storylines in HBO’s Succession.”

Lachlan, 54, has already been overseeing the business for years and is unlikely to change the conservative political bent of the organizations, which was was of utmost importance to his father, who saw it as the signature driver of the companies’ fortunes.

But he’s distinguished his management style from Rupert, 94, who retired formally in 2023 though still comes to the office on occasion and weighs in on major decisions.

“Lachlan Murdoch is a very different leader than his father,” said Paddy Manning, an Australian journalist and author who wrote a biography of Lachlan. “He does not aspire to be the same political kingmaker or editor-in-chief figure that Rupert was throughout his 70-year career.”

7.Apple Debuts $999 iPhone Air, Betting on Ultrathin Design: Bloomberg and others

Apple unveiled its thinnest phone yesterday at its annual product launch event in Silicon Valley. At 0.22 inches and 5.8 ounces, the iPhone 17 Air is almost 30% slimmer and roughly 0.2 ounces lighter than the iPhone 16, while offering nearly half an inch more display. The Air and its two sibling models—the more powerful iPhone 17 Pro and more affordable iPhone 17—are all powered by Apple’s latest A19 chips. 

The Information has stated, it appears that Apple is making some tradeoffs for battery life with the iPhone Air’s thinness. The company said it has “all day battery life,” but the most specific figure it provided—40 hours of video playback—requires the iPhone Air to be paired with an external battery pack. Meanwhile, Apple said that the iPhone 17 Pro Max had 39 hours of video playback without any external battery. With the new thin iPhone, Apple is beginning a period of more aggressive design changes to the iPhone. A foldable iPhone is expected next year, according to The Information’s past reporting, and the 20th-anniversary iPhone in 2027 is expected to have a major update of an all-glass design, according to analysts. In a potentially telling move John Ternus, a senior vice president of hardware engineering at Apple, introduced the iPhone Air at Apple’s event. Ternus is considered the most likely candidate to become Apple’s next CEO. Entrusting him to announce the company’s most important product could be an indication that Apple is preparing him to assume a bigger role.”

The tech giant also announced upgrades to the Apple Watch and AirPods, with an emphasis on health tracking. The Series 11 watches rate sleep quality, detect sleep apnea, and use machine learning to monitor blood pressure. Meanwhile, the latest AirPods Pro tracks wearers' heart rate and up to 50 workout types. The earbuds also use Apple Intelligence to facilitate real-time language translations. 

8.China Factory Deflation Eases But Not Enough to Call Turnaround:Bloomberg

China’s factory prices fell at a slower pace in August, an encouraging development for an economy mired in deflation. Producer prices slid 2.9%, extending a years-long streak of negative readings, but still an improvement from July’s steeper drop.

It’s a tentative sign that Beijing’s campaign to rein in overcapacity in sectors ranging from solar to steel and cement might be having an impact. The so-called “anti-involution” campaign has picked up pace in recent months, spurring hopes that industrial oversupply, which had weighed on prices of commodities and factory inputs, may ease.

Wednesday’s price report also showed the uphill battle China faces in tackling deflation. Consumer prices fell 0.4% from a year earlier, worse than every estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

9.A US man is still alive more than six months after receiving a genetically modified pig kidney in a transplant: Nature

The 67-year-old, who had end-stage kidney disease and had been on dialysis for two years, is the longest-lasting recipient of a pig-iron; another patient lasted four months before it had to be removed, and a third has so far managed three months. The organs are modified to look like human body parts to the immune system. More than 100,000 people are waiting for organ transplants in the US alone, and scientists hope the use of animal organs — xenotransplantation — could help supply meet demand, Science reported in May.

10.AI-led job interviews: Tyler Cowen in Marginal Revolution Blog

Tyler quoting from a new paper by Brian Jabarian and Luca Henkel.

“We study the impact of replacing human recruiters with AI voice agents to conduct job interviews. Partnering with a recruitment firm, we conducted a natural field experiment in which 70,000 applicants were randomly assigned to be interviewed by human recruiters, AI voice agents, or given a choice between the two. 

In all three conditions, human recruiters evaluated interviews and made hiring decisions based on applicants’ performance in the interview and a standardised test. Contrary to the forecasts of professional recruiters, we find that AI-led increase job offers by 12%, job starts by 18%, and 30-day retention by 17% among all applicants. 

Applicants accept job offers with a similar likelihood and rate interview, as well as recruiter quality, similarly in a customer experience survey. When offered the choice, 78% of applicants choose the AI recruiter, and we find evidence that applicants with lower test scores are more likely to choose AI. 

Analyzing interview transcripts reveals that AI-led interviews elicit more hiring-relevant information from applicants compared to human-led interviews. Recruiters score the interview performance of AI-interviewed applicants higher, but place greater weight on standardized tests in their hiring decisions. 

Overall, we provide evidence that AI can match human recruiters in conducting job interviews while preserving applicants’ satisfaction and firm operations.”