Arvind's Newsletter

1.India fuel exports surge to multi-year highs on higher refinery runs, ethanol blending: Reuters

India’s fuel exports have surged to multi-year highs, driven by higher refinery output and a rise in ethanol blending to 20% from 12% in 2023. Gasoline exports may reach 400,000 barrels per day this year, while diesel could climb to 610,000–630,000 bpd, supported by by European demand and discounted Russian crude, according to Reuters.

Refiners, led by Reliance Industries and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd are boosting exports to capitalise on strong Asian gasoline margins , which have risen 51% since the start of the year to about $11 to $12 a barrel.

Separately, the government has allowed exports of Second Generation (2G) ethanol, meaning ethanol made from non-food sources like bagasse, crop residue and wood waste, provided exporters get the required sustainability certification.

2.Electrolyser PLI companies seek to defer launch by a year: Economic Times

Electrolyser companies may delay their project launch. The delay is due to slow demand for green hydrogen production equipment. Companies informed the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy about the potential delay. The ministry expects projects to be on track. India aims for five million tonnes of green hydrogen by 2030. Tenders for green hydrogen projects have been awarded.

We have planned to be ready by the PLI-mandated timelines. However, based on recent tenders for electrolyser-based green ammonia projects, the demand for electrolysers would be in 2027. Therefore, to avoid idle assets, we are working to align readiness with the demand of electrolysers,” said Vivek Bhide, regional president (India) at John Cockerill, which has tied up with AM Green (formerly Greenko) to set up a 2 GW electrolyser facility in Kakinada, Andhra Pradesh.

3.Protein mania shifts from gym-goers to mainstream consumers in India: Ambi Parameswaran in Business Standard

“Some years ago, the only place you saw “protein” emblazoned boldly on was on special drinks that gym-going men, and women, slugged after a heavy workout. It was seen as a special something that these six-pack aspirants consumed. Us mortals were not on the radar of such products. But as with all innovative products, the diffusion of innovation curve kicked in. The special ingredient managed to “cross the chasm” to become accepted by the early majority, it seems.

The point is that protein-packed products and protein-laden claims have made a giant leap from the gym to the refrigerator at home. 

Amul probably pioneered the move to make protein the centre of a health offering by presenting it as a key ingredient in its range of products. The brand has published full-page ads in leading dailies, presenting protein-packed products, including high-protein milk, whey protein powders (the gym-goers’ favourite), protein lassi / butter milk, high-protein curd, cottage cheese etc.

While the likes of Amul and Godrej are going after the upper- and upper-middle-income segment, products such as energy bars are targeting the more affluent millennials. These energy bars and breakfast snacks, like YogaBar, also declare the amount of protein a bar contains: 8 gm, 10 gm, 20 gm, and so on.

Data shows that we are consuming less protein than our global counterparts in the US and China. Indian diets, largely vegetarian, incorporate protein needs through dals, curd and paneer. Soya, tofu and quinoa add to the protein intake of the more evolved consumer. But there are contradictions when it comes to understanding and interpreting our body’s nutritional needs. 

Animal protein, which is recommended, can cause cardiovascular diseases due to its saturated fat content, but at the same time offers us iron, B12, and more. Plant-based protein gives us folate, fibre and more, but on a per-gram basis offers less protein. Both non-veg and veg food as protein sources have positives and negatives.”

4.India considers nuclear liability fund for major accidents : Reuters

India plans to set up a nuclear liability fund to cover accident compensation in excess of 15 billion rupees ($169 million) owed by plant operators, in a bid to ease risk-sharing concerns among global suppliers and private firms, two government sources said.

The move holds out potential to unlock long-stalled private and foreign investment in the nuclear industry, by aligning India’s compensation framework with global norms, added the sources, who have direct knowledge of the matter.

The statutory fund, proposed by a new atomic energy bill, would supplement an operator’s capped liability, in a shift from the current ad hoc payout system, said the sources, who sought anonymity because the plan has yet to be made public.

5.SoftBank-Backed Oyo Said to Tap Banks for $800 Million India IPO: Bloomberg

SoftBank-backed Oyo Hotels is gearing up for a long-awaited Mumbai IPO that could raise as much as $800 million and value the hotel chain at up to $8 billion, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg News.

Parent company Oravel Stays has tapped Axis Bank, ICICI Securities, Goldman, and Citi to lead the 2026 share sale, which is expected to include both new and existing stock. The move revives Oyo’s stalled listing ambitions after regulators sent back its earlier filing, and comes as the budget-hospitality giant -- founded in 2012 -- reports rising revenue and its first profit.

6.Huntington’s disease has been treated successfully for the first time: BBC News

Researchers develop gene therapy treatment that slowed the progression of Huntington's disease—a fatal, progressive brain disorder—by 75% in a clinical trial; biotech company uniQure aims to offer the therapy in the US next year.

7.Chinese leader Xi Jinping vowed to cut his country’s emissions by 7 to 10% below their 2035 peak, taking a veiled swipe at US President Donald Trump who this week railed against renewable energy: AP News

 “Green and low-carbon transition is the trend of our times,” Xi said, pushing other countries to pursue renewables even if some are “acting against it.”

Earlier, Trump had called climate change “the greatest con job ever,” and said renewable energy was destroying Western nations.

Since the start of his second term, Trump has slashed funding for green energy and boosted oil and gas production. However, China’s emissions remain far greater than those of the US: Beijing’s proposed 10% cut equates to roughly four times UK’s entire output.

8.The world’s appetite for oil may be finally about to shrink: Gzero Media

“We may be at – or very near – peak oil demand.

This isn’t the old “peak oil” story that doomsayers have predicted for decades – the moment when the world runs out of accessible oil. Those theories have been proven wrong time and again – most recently when fracking and other extraction technologies turbocharged the industry’s productivity, unlocked new barrels, and turned the United States into the world’s top producer and exporter. What I’m talking about here is different. We're likely witnessing the moment when global appetite for oil finally starts to wane, driven not by scarcity but by changes in how the world consumes energy.

The most dramatic shift comes from China, whose appetite for fossil fuels kept global oil markets humming for thirty years. Between 2010 and 2020, Chinese oil imports doubled to 10 million barrels per day. That era looks to be over thanks to a demographic transition, a rapidly accelerating energy revolution, and slowing economic growth.

Start with demographics. China’s population peaked during Covid but has since shrunk by nearly 25 million people – roughly equivalent to Denmark, Sweden, and Norway combined – after growing by more than 155 million in the previous twenty years. Fewer people means less demand for gasoline and diesel – especially in a decelerating economy weaning itself off a housing and infrastructure construction binge.

Then there’s China’s energy revolution. In just five years, electric vehicles’ share of new car sales in China jumped from roughly 5% to over 50%. That alone took what used to be the world’s single largest growth market for gasoline off the table. But China’s technological transformation has gone far beyond cars. Beijing is also rapidly electrifying heating and heavy industry while deploying renewable power capacity (especially solar) at a historic scale. The country installed almost 270 gigawatts of new renewable energy in just the first half of 2025 – more than twice the new capacity installed by the entire rest of the world in the same period, six times what the US managed in all of 2024 at the heyday of Bidenomics, and more than India’s entire installed renewable capacity. The result: China’s oil demand has likely topped out and could enter structural decline as soon as this year, joining Europe and North America.

Read on

9.Russia will raise its value-added tax rate to 22%, an indication the Ukraine war is dragging on its economy: Financial Times

President Vladimir Putin had pledged not to raise taxes before 2030, but spiralling military and security expenditure — and reduced income from oil thanks to sanctions and Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries — have hit Moscow’s exchequer.

US President Donald Trump said this week that Russia was in “big financial trouble,” which Moscow dismissed, but the budget deficit is expected to reach 2.6% for the full year, against an expected shortfall of 0.5%.

Economic growth is also slowing, with official forecasts falling from 2.5% to 1% for this year.

10.The rare disease that stops us feeling fear: BBC News

Feeling fear is an evolutionary survival tactic. A small number of people have a rare condition that means they're not scared of anything. How do they live a life without fear?

Imagine jumping out of an aeroplane and feeling nothing. No rush of adrenaline, or quickening heartbeat.

That is the reality for Jordy Cernik, a British man who had his adrenal glands removed to reduce anxiety caused by Cushing's syndrome – a rare disease which occurs when the adrenal glands produce too much cortisol, a stress hormone. 

The treatment worked a little too well. Jordy stopped feeling anxious – but something was wrong. On a 2012 trip to Disneyland, he went on a rollercoaster ride and realised that he felt no fear. He subsequently skydived out of a plane, zip-wired off the Tyne Bridge in Newcastle and abseiled down the Shard in London – all without feeling the smallest raised pulse. 

Cernik's experience is rare, but not unique. It may sound familiar to anyone who lives with Urbach-Wiethe disease (also known as lipoid proteinosis), a genetic condition so rare that only about 400 people have ever been diagnosed with it.