Arvind's Newsletter

1.IndiGo tightens its grip over domestic market as Tata grapples with Air India: Moneycontrol

InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) gained market share in the domestic aviation market as peers struggled with capacity constraints, supply chain and maintenance issues. The company’s market share increased by 3.2 percentage points over the last one year to 65.2 percent in July 2025. During the time, Air India’s market share declined by 2.6 percentage points to 26.2 percent.

SpiceJet’s market share also declined in July compared to the year ago month. Akasa Air saw notable improvement in market share to 5.5 percent. Akasa Air is now twice as big as SpiceJet.

Akasa Air, the youngest of the lot, is managing its aircraft more efficiently. Aircraft occupancy at about 90 percent is higher than that for IndiGo and other airlines.

IndiGo’s capacity utilisation is more or less similar to the levels in the previous years. However, Air India group saw notable reduction in capacity utilisation levels so far in the year, partly due to heightened maintenance and safety reviews.

2.Tesla Falls Short in India With About 600 Orders Since Launch: Bloomberg

Tesla Inc.’s long-awaited entry into India has delivered underwhelming results so far, with tepid bookings fueling fresh doubts about the company’s global growth outlook.

The Elon Musk-led electric vehicle maker has received orders for just over 600 cars since launching sales in mid-July, a number that’s fallen short of the company’s own expectations, according to people familiar with the matter. That’s roughly the number of vehicles Tesla delivered every four hours globally during the first half of the year.

Tesla now plans to ship 350 to 500 cars to India this year, of which the first batch is slated to land from Shanghai in early September, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing confidential matters.

Meanwhile, according to Reuters, an Indian tax panel has proposed steep increases in consumer levies on luxury electric cars priced above $46,000, a government document showed, a move that could impact sales of carmakers such as Tesla, Mercedes-Benz, BMW and BYD.

3.Indian CEOs cautious about private investment revival, says BS poll: Business Standard

Indian chief executives remain cautious about the prospects of a strong revival in private investment, even as the economy posts robust growth, according to a dipstick survey of 14 business leaders.

The poll, conducted over the past weekend, found that only 28.6 per cent of chief executive officers (CEOs) expect a strong revival in private capital expenditure — a crucial driver of long-term growth. However, a majority — 50 per cent —  see only a modest improvement in the cycle, while 21.4 per cent do not believe investment activity will meaningfully pick up. This reflects continued caution among corporate leaders despite India’s 7.8 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth expansion in the first quarter of FY26.

On the broader economy, CEOs expressed mixed confidence. About 35.7 per cent believe growth will remain strong, while a similar percentage of respondents expect it to moderate. The rest said it was too early to call, highlighting the uncertain outlook.  

4.India likely to receive above-average monsoon rainfall in September: Reuters

India is likely to get above-average monsoon rainfall in September after receiving 5% above-normal rains in August, the state-run weather department said on Sunday.

Above-normal rainfall could damage India's summer-sown crops like rice, cotton, soybean, corn, and pulses, which are typically harvested from mid-September.

All regions, except northeastern states and the southern states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala, are likely to receive rainfall equating to 109% of the 50-year average in September, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.

5.August Rush: FPI Outflows at $4 billion Highest in 7 Months: Economic Times

Net equity sales in August by foreign funds were the highest in seven months — and cumulative exits this year the most since 2022 — as the impact of punitive US tariffs on Indian merchandise exports and a steep rupee decline took their toll on locally listed growth assets.

Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) were net sellers on 15 out of the 19 trading sessions in August, dumping $3.99 billion (₹34,993 crore) of Indian equities in August, data from NSDL showed. For the first eight months of a calendar year, this was the biggest cumulative FPI selling at $14.9 billion (₹1.3 lakh crore), next only to the first eight months of 2022, when overseas funds sold $21.4 billion worth of Mumbai-listed risk assets.

To be sure, FPI outflows from India's secondary market have so far been partially offset by $4.7 billion worth of overseas buying in the primary market.

6.Kraft Heinz splits, unwinding merger that never paid off: Reuters

Kraft Heinz will split into two listed companies, one focused on groceries and the other on sauces and spreads, it said on Tuesday, dismantling a packaged goods giant that never achieved the growth expected when it was formed a decade ago.

The 2015 merger that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway helped engineer alongside Brazilian private equity firm 3G Capital brought together the iconic Kraft and Heinz brands to create a $45 billion company.

That merger was a bet that the Brazilian investment firm’s aggressive cost controls could drive strong earnings for Kraft Heinz, but instead some of the company’s key brands were neglected and lost market share to grocery store’s own-brand alternatives. 

The group said the split was “designed to maximise Kraft Heinz’s capabilities and brands while reducing complexity”, in a bet that the break-up will lead investors to boost the valuation of the separated companies. Lets see.

7.Gold and Silver Jump as Rate-Cut Wagers Reignite Bull Run - Bloomberg

Precious metals have more than doubled in price over the past three years, propelled by mounting risks in the spheres of geopolitics, business and global trade.

Silver topped $40 an ounce for the first time since 2011—and gold moved closer toward its April record above $3,500 an ounce—spurred by expectations that the US central bank will cut interest rates later this month.

Morgan Stanley analysts see about 10% further upside for gold and potential for silver to overshoot their forecast. “Fed rate cuts, a weakening USD, rising ETF inflows and better Indian imports should all be supportive for gold and silver,” Morgan Stanley analysts Amy Gower and Martijn Rats wrote in a note.

The metals have also found support on concerns they may face US tariffs, after silver was added last week to Washington’s list of critical minerals, which already includes palladium.

8.Russia says China has agreed vast new Siberia gas pipeline: Financial Times

Russian gas giant Gazprom said it has signed an agreement to build the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline that runs through Mongolia and into China. The deal promises to bind Russia and China more closely for decades and could reshape the global gas trade. Beijing has yet to confirm details. 

The announcement came as Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Putin exchanged warm remarks over tea in Beijing, with Xi calling the Russian leader an “old friend.’’ Beijing’s move to buy more Russian gas amounts to a rebuke of US president Donald Trump, who slapped 50% levies on Indian goods as punishment for its Russian oil purchases.

9.The rise of the AI influencer: Financial Times

Cinematic-quality AI production tools are helping to launch thousands of digital avatars — or “AI influencers” — into the creator economy, which was estimated to be worth $250bn in 2023, whether newly generated personas or clones of existing influencers.

The technology can be so convincing that one influencer, Mia Zelu, garnered more than 150,000 followers as social media clips appeared to show her attending Wimbledon this summer, before it was revealed she was actually an AI-generated personality in an artificial setting.

Proponents argue such tools can help existing influencers by automating some of their work — translating video content into other languages, responding to fans or deploying animated versions of themselves to clinch marketing deals, even while they sleep.

For brands, there is the promise of cheap, instant influencer marketing and full control over what an avatar looks like and says. It is, according to Alexandru Voica, head of corporate affairs and policy at media generation start-up Synthesia, the “great equaliser”, whereby even small brands without big budgets can afford “polished, studio-quality content at scale”.

But the shift has left some human influencers — particularly those who do not wish to use AI as part of their content creation processes — and their teams fearing displacement or disintermediation.

Already a survey of 500 marketing professionals conducted by the Influencer Marketing Hub and published in 2024, found nearly 60 per cent had experience using AI influencers in their campaigns and 15.5 per cent were planning to. The majority of those who did said the ability to customise or control the AI influencer’s behaviour was important.

Already, a brisk market catering to the AI creator economy is beginning to spring up, including studios focused on generating virtual personas and managing their narratives, and ad groups connecting brands with virtual influencers.

10.Intermittent fasting: benefits or risks? Study raises questions about heart health: BBC

Intermittent fasting has become the diet trend of the decade.

It promises to hack biology without the drudgery of counting calories or cutting carbs: simply change when you eat, not necessarily what you eat. Tech moguls swear by it, Hollywood stars insist it keeps them trim. Britain's former prime minister Rishi Sunak once spoke of starting his week with a 36-hour fast.

So far the science has seemed supportive. Research suggests that extending the overnight fast may improve metabolism, aid cellular repair and perhaps even prolong life. Nutritionists, however, have long warned that skipping meals is no magic bullet - and may be risky for those with underlying conditions.

Intermittent fasting compresses eating into a short daily window, often eight hours, leaving a 16-hour gap without food. Other time-restricted diets, like the 5:2 plan, limit calories on certain days rather than hours.

Now, the first large-scale study of its kind raises a more serious red flag. Researchers, analysing data from more than 19,000 adults, found that those who confined their eating to less than eight hours a day faced a 135% higher risk of dying from cardiovascular disease - issues with the heart and blood vessel - than people who ate over 12-14 hours.

An elevated cardiovascular risk means that, based on a person's health, lifestyle and medical data, they are more likely than others in the study to develop heart-related problems such as heart attack or stroke.