Arvind's Newsletter

1.IndiGo expects to carry 112 million passengers in 2024

IndiGo expects to carry 112 million passengers in 2024 and is on the way to become a leading player in global aviation, its chief Pieter Elbers has said. In 2023, the country's largest airline has flown over 100 million passengers.

India is one of the world's fastest-growing civil aviation markets and IndiGo, which has a domestic market share of 63.6 per cent, is also expanding its international network.

In a statement to PTI on the outlook for 2025, CEO Elbers said A321 XLRs will be arriving next year. These narrow-body planes have a longer range and will help the airline to start longer-duration direct international flights.

IndiGo said it was exploring an earlier introduction of wide-body planes in its fleet to meet the growing travel demand for international travel.

Industry sources said the airline was in talks with Norse Atlantic Airways to wet-lease six B787 planes in its fleet. Under a wet-lease, the lessor provides flight and maintenance crew along with the aircraft. In a dry-lease, the lessor provides just the plane.

IndiGo had in April announced an order for 30 A350 wide-body aircraft, marking a major change in its business model that had been focused on all-economy operations. However, the deliveries of A350 aircraft will begin from 2027 onwards.

2.Google’s video blows the doors off

Google published a new video generator, Veo 2, which is far ahead of OpenAI’s Sora and arguably the best available right now.

Veo 2, like Sora, can create near-photorealistic videos from prompts, and according to its creators has much-improved physics and sharper resolutions. It’s one of several major recent AI releases: DeepMind itself put out Genie 2, which can create playable 3D worlds — essentially video games — last week, while Sora became available to ChatGPT Subscribers in USA.

The ability to easily create realistic videos worries some people: One tech journalist said in The Guardian that she felt concerned that they will lead to deepfakes and scams.

3.SpaceX and Amazon are reportedly in talks with a group of European airlines to overhaul their in-flight WiFi. 

SpaceX’s satellite service Starlink already provides internet to Qatar Airways and recently signed similar deals with US giant United Airlines and a Tokyo-based carrier, among others. 

IAG SA, which owns British Airways, Ireland’s Aer Lingus, and Spain’s Iberia, is weighing Starlink, which is rapidly expanding, and Amazon’s rival service, an IAG executive told Bloomberg — although the latter is yet to come online. 

Internet satellite constellations can produce “web-surfing experiences closer to what consumers expect on the ground,” the outlet noted — perhaps a welcome change to the current, often-patchy, experience.

4.More than 100 clinical trials of stem-cell therapies, for cancer, Parkinson’s disease, diabetes, and other conditions, are under way.

Pluripotent stem cells can become any kind of cell in the body, and theoretically can be used to repair any damaged tissue. But manipulating them is still difficult: It has been only 26 years since they were first cultured in labs.

Recent months have seen a “turning point,” with many trials — “small and [focused] mainly on safety,” Nature noted — beginning. One trial took patients with epilepsy whose seizures were so severe and regular they could not live independently, replaced damaged neurons, and in some cases saw fits drop almost to zero. “The rate of progress has been remarkable,” one scientist said.

5.Chess champion Magnus Carlsen leads gambit to capture ancient game

Magnus Carlsen has a vision to transform the ancient game of chess. The grandmaster, a contender to be the greatest player in history, is convinced that a revamped version complete with heart rate monitors and “confession” booths can win over new fans as well as devotees, insisting there is “massive untapped potential”.

The Norwegian, the world’s highest-rated chess player, has joined forces with German technology investor Jan Buettner and New York-based Left Lane Capital to launch a league that takes inspiration from sports such as Formula 1 motor racing.

He and fellow competitors in the Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Tour will compete under a version of the game that randomises the starting position of the kings, queens, bishops, knights and rooks so as to prioritise creativity and intelligence over memorised lines of play.

The heart rate monitors will reveal the stress levels endured by players, while confession booth-style interviews will follow a similar format to those used in reality television shows.

The competition, which gets under way at Buettner’s German estate in February before moving on to Paris, New York, Delhi and Cape Town, is a play for a global online chess audience that has boomed since the pandemic. The profile of chess was raised by the success of The Queen’s Gambit, a Netflix series released in 2020 that tells the story of a fictional female prodigy.

6.Christopher Nolan’s next film announced as ‘mythic action epic’ The Odyssey

Christopher Nolan’s follow-up to Oppenheimer will be an adaptation of Homer’s Odyssey, it has been revealed.

Hollywood studio Universal, which is backing the project, posted on social media on Monday that: “Christopher Nolan’s next film The Odyssey is a mythic action epic shot across the world” and that “Homer’s foundational saga” will be shot “using brand new Imax film technology”. The studio said it plans to release the film in July 2026.

News that Nolan was working on a new project – following the seven-Oscars-winning Oppenheimer – first emerged in October, when Spider-Man’s Tom Holland was revealed to be in talks to star alongside Matt Damon. It later emerged that Anne Hathaway and Zendaya have also joined the cast.

7.China steps up campaign for single people to date, marry and give birth

China has stepped up a nationwide campaign to convince single people to date, marry and have children as Beijing grapples with an increasingly severe demographic crisis.

Local governments are cold-calling married women to ask about their plans to have children and are handing out cash to parents to encourage them to have more than one child.

Universities have been asked to introduce so-called love courses for single students, and regular articles appear in state media about the benefits of having children.

China’s population is shrinking, with the number of deaths outstripping births, piling pressure on local governments to address an increasingly bleak demographic outlook.

“China’s population faces three major trends: ageing, low birth and low marriage rates,” said prominent economist Ren Zeping in an interview with domestic press last month. “There are fewer children and more elderly people. The speed and scale of China’s ageing is unprecedented.”

8.Ten business trends for 2025, and forecasts for 15 industries; A global round-up from The Economist Intelligence Unit. A long but worthwhile read.

Ten business trends for 2025

1. Lower inflation encourages central banks, including America’s Federal Reserve, to cut interest rates further—and prompts consumers to go shopping.

2. IT spending rises to $3.6trn as companies tap into artificial intelligence. About 30% of large American firms invest $10m or more in AI, up from 16% in 2024.

3. Adding to worries about humans passing their prime, about 12% of them are aged over 65. Yet only 10% of global GDP goes on health care.

4. Governments push wide-ranging green schemes. Renewable electricity surges but fossil fuels still supply over four-fifths of energy needs.

5. Electric vehicles are a bright spot for carmakers, with sales rising by a quarter. But range anxiety deters many buyers and pushes others towards plugless models.

6. Airlines pledge carbon-emissions cuts, while buying new planes. As international arrivals ascend to 1.6 bn, tourism generates 5-8% of all greenhouse gases.

7. Housing markets cause policymakers and regulators jitters, even as $2.1trn of property loans mature. House prices are generally high, though China’s dip.

8. Green policies drive global metals prices 7.5% higher, with demand growing for everything from car batteries to cables—and thus from copper to steel.

9. Environmental goals stimulate infrastructure spending around the world. Gross fixed investment climbs to almost $28trn, a quarter of global GDP.

10. Shippers must also navigate green trends: 40% of their emissions are brought under the EU’s emissions-trading system. Geopolitics, too, rocks boats.

Forecasts are for 2025 unless otherwise indicated.
World totals based on 60 countries accounting for over 95% of world
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Business Environment

Even if 2025 brings no new major conflicts, geopolitical tensions will weigh on the global economy. World GDP will grow by just 2.5%. European economies will strengthen but emerging markets will be flat due to trade barriers, climate change and technological hurdles. Inflation and interest rates will fall, but high public debt and defence budgets will crimp governments’ ability to spend.

Automotive

After nearly stalling in 2024, global new-car sales will grow by 2% in 2025. Sales of new trucks will be speedier, rising by 4% thanks to expanding infrastructure in emerging markets. Electric vehicles (EVs) will be the car market’s sole spark, surging by almost a quarter, though demand will stay below recent highs. Range anxiety and high prices will push buyers towards plugless models instead.

Efforts to cut vehicle emissions, though fitful, will be a focus. Norway aims to make all new cars emission-free by 2025, the first country to do so, though vans will miss the target. Australia, an emissions laggard, will finally introduce fuel-efficiency standards. But the EU has delayed implementing its Euro 7 standards until 2028. Even so, cars running on petrol and diesel will hit roadblocks. More cities will impose zero-emission zones, with Stockholm the first to ban fossil-fuel guzzlers from its centre.

China will beat its goals for electrics, generating half the world’s sales. Its EV-makers will gain ground: BYD, the world’s biggest, aims to sell 1m vehicles outside China, helped by new plants in Brazil and Hungary. Vietnam’s VinFast will target India and Indonesia. Western firms will hit back. Volkswagen and Tesla will be developing cheaper plug-ins, as Toyota launches a self-driving EV for China. But higher tariff barriers for China’s EVs will complicate green-car plans, as will tighter local-content requirements. As supply chains splinter, carmakers will look to new chip and battery plants to support EV production.

Defence

Wars in Ukraine, Lebanon and Gaza will stoke demand for weapons, but defence spending will be unevenly spread. America, the biggest spender, will raise its military budget by 4%, to $884bn, but China, the second-biggest, will increase its spending faster. NATO will debate a national defence-spending target of 2.5% of GDP, although one in three members have missed the current goal of 2%. The alliance will draft a broad strategy to counter Russia and will hand Ukraine $43bn to fight on. But Germany plans to halve its outlay to Ukraine, to save money.

Worried that America’s commitment to NATO will fray, the EU will launch rapid-deployment forces and expand production of shells. Meanwhile much of Russia’s Soviet-era kit will be useless by mid-2025. America will support Israel, despite some misgivings at home. China’s navy will keep skirmishing in Asian waters, bolstered by new diesel-electric submarines. The Philippines will lift defence spending in response; Australia will boost troop numbers by offering foreign residents citizenship for enlisting. Japan will deploy new drones, and America its hypersonic missile, designed to fly at 3,800mph (6,115kph).

TO WATCH: Flying low. Global tensions may soar but America’s air force will ground 250 old planes in 2025, leaving it with fewer than 5,000 aircraft, a recent low. New models will help, like the F-35 stealth jet—if its bugs can be fixed.

Energy

Energy consumption will rise by 2% to a record 14.5 trn tonnes of oil equivalent in 2025. Fossil fuels will provide over 80% of that, increasing carbon emissions by 1.7 times from 1990 levels. Coal use will dwindle in Europe and North America, but India and Russia will stick with the black stuff. China’s coal consumption will near its peak.

More oil will be burned, too. OPEC+ will continue cutting oil output to keep Brent prices around $77 a barrel in 2025, though non-OPEC output (mainly from the Americas) will surge. The EU will keep switching away from Russian oil, as the Czech Republic connects to supplies imported by pipeline from Italy. The Baltic countries will disconnect from Russia’s power grid, but Russian gas will continue to flow to Europe, mostly via Bulgaria.

Green energy will flourish. Renewables (including hydro) will make up 14% of global supply. Wind and solar will deliver a sixth of all electricity. Gujarat will get a massive solar farm that will supply 4% of India’s power. Zambia will build dozens of solar mini-grids to serve outlying villages. Texas will gain its first grid-connected geothermal plant. China, India, South Korea and Turkey will switch on (carbon-free) nuclear reactors, taking the global total to 447.

TO WATCH: H2—oh. China will smash a country-wide target to make more than 200,000 tonnes of green hydrogen. In fact Inner Mongolia and Gansu, in the north and north-west, plan to produce multiples of that on their own. The catch? New pipelines will be needed to ship the fuel to China’s populous east.

Financial services

Banks will lobby regulators in 2025 as the Basel 3 “end-game” rules, drawn up after the financial crisis of 2007-09, kick in. American banks, wary of falling interest rates, will resist pressure to boost capital buffers. Backsliding could prompt protests from their EU rivals, but Asia’s banks, buoyed by faster growth, will be more sanguine. Regulators will worry about loans to commercial property, given the shift to hybrid working, as global bank loans rise by 7% to $112trn.

Climate change will undermine insurers’ calculations. Yet Swiss Re, a big insurer, predicts the industry will grow rapidly, with life-insurance premiums reaching $3.1trn and non-life premiums $4.8trn. Environmental-disclosure rules will tighten in many countries; EU companies will issue their first sustainability reports. But an American backlash against “sustainable” investing will spread.

Cash is no longer king: the world will have 2bn credit cards but only 3m cash machines in 2025. The lines between banks and fintechs will blur further: the Philippines will permit new digital banks; Spain’s BBVA will launch one in Germany. Brazil will push forward with its central-bank digital currency, Drex. The EU will decide whether to move ahead with a digital euro. The US dollar, however, will remain dominant, defying China’s efforts to expand foreign use of the yuan.

TO WATCH: Clearing up. Despite Brexit, LCH, a London clearing house, still processes around 95% of euro-denominated interest-rate swaps, and most denominated in dollars. The EU wanted investors to switch to rivals like Germany’s Eurex by 2025. Hard luck (for now).

Food and farming

Most food commodities will get cheaper in 2025 as supplies swell. EIU’s index of food, feedstuff and beverages will dip to 25% below the peak of 2022. Beverages and sugar will lead the decline, with oilseed and grain prices holding firmer. As El Niño blows over, La Niña will damage harvests in the Americas and help them in Asia. Wheat production will rebound despite the travails of Ukraine, a main producer. India will ease restrictions on rice exports as global prices slide. Even cocoa prices, which have soared during the last two years, will drop by a quarter, to chocolate-lovers’ delight.

Palm-oil producers and coffee markets will have an extra year to prepare for the EU’s delayed deforestation rules, just as American drinks-makers postpone targets for plastics use. But new EU rules will promote food composting and plastics recycling. China will clamp down on food additives, Japan on food packaging. Britain will extend its sustainable-farming incentives. But funding for a global biodiversity plan will not measure up. Sin taxes on tobacco, alcohol, fat and sugar will spread. Germany may even impose one on meat.

Consumers will spend $11.5trn on food globally, nearly 6% more than in 2024. They will eat more fish and meat, despite rising sales of vegan food. But even as food sales accelerate, food companies’ profits will fall from recent highs. Unilever will cut 7,500 jobs and Danone will refocus its strategy on nutrition products.

Health care

Health-care systems will ache in 2025 as populations age and staff struggle. Nearly 12% of the world’s population will be aged 65 or over. Yet only 10% of global GDP will be spent on health, down from 11% during the covid-19 pandemic. Worldwide spending will reach $11trn, nearly half of it in America.

Compulsory spending will outpace voluntary as countries expand public-health insurance. The United Arab Emirates will oblige expats to get insured; China will work to improve its public hospitals and clinics. Even so, a goal set by the World Health Organisation (WHO) to extend universal health care to 1bn more people globally will be missed. Nigeria’s plans for a universal system will falter; India’s government will miss its spending targets. America will debate the cost of Obamacare subsidies as their expiry looms again.

The WHO will embark on its 14th four-year plan, focusing on climate change. As deaths from extreme weather rise, governments will develop warning systems; carmakers in America will add heat alerts to cars. Alarm over infectious diseases will push governments to sign a delayed pandemic treaty. The number of obesity drugs will balloon as China and India produce cheaper versions. Novo Nordisk will try to turn its fat-busters into heart treatments. With further, expensive therapies emerging, overall drugs sales will bulge to $1.7trn.

TO WATCH: Plague prep. Vaccines will advance in 2025. Bavarian Nordic will make 10m mpox jabs. Scientists will test an avian-flu shot and an all-in-one jab for coronaviruses. Deliveries of mRNA vaccines for cancer may even begin.

Infrastructure

Green policies will prompt a frenzy of construction in 2025. Gross fixed investment, a proxy for infrastructure spending, will rise by 6% to $28trn (about 25% of world GDP). Nearly a fifth will be in America, where Biden-era subsidies will spur spending but undershoot infrastructure needs. Europe and China will invest heavily in green infrastructure and digital networks.

Money will come from governments, pension funds and sovereign-wealth funds, as well as private companies. Much will flow into renewable energy (see Energy). This in turn will support digitalisation, though the rise of data centres will strain power grids. 5G telecoms networks will also expand—gradually (see Telecoms).Japan’s World Expo will conjure a digital future and Saudi Arabia will invest in its futuristic city, Neom.

Transport infrastructure will lag, despite a shift to greener travel. Europe will see a renaissance in its railways, gaining a night train from Brussels to Venice and new departures from Amsterdam. Eastern Europe, over-reliant on planes, will get a direct Budapest-Belgrade rail link. India will build roads, adding close to 13,000km in the year to March 2026. China will expand ports in Africa and open one in Peru, shoring up trade routes—and its military might.

TO WATCH: Building troubles. Wars and online sabotage will threaten infrastructure plans in 2025. The fallout from the Gaza-Israel war will imperil power plants and the Suez canal. The UN will push forward with a treaty on cyber-crime as risks multiply. Hundreds of millions of cyber-assaults on critical infrastructure will occur in 2025.

Information technology

Wags might suggest renaming this section “AI”. The craze for artificial intelligence will help total IT spending grow faster, rising 8% to $3.6trn in 2025, though not quite as fast as during the pandemic-fuelled bonanza in 2021, when it surged by 14%. Data centres will see investment and revenue grow as more companies try to harness ChatGPT and other large-language models. In America around 30% of businesses will invest $10m or more in AI, up from 16% in 2024, says EY, an accountancy firm. Apple will bring its generative-AI tools, Apple Intelligence, to more iPhone users.

Some of the investment craze may be plain crazy. Gartner, a consultancy, predicts 30% of generative-AI projects will not pass the “proof of concept” stage amid daunting costs and uncertain benefits. Even schemes that make it further will not always justify the hype. Regulators, meanwhile, are circling. In 2025 parts of the EU’s AI Act will take effect. The African Union will try to forge a common AI strategy.

In hardware, chipmaking rivalries will heat up, with Nvidia, the king of AI silicon, trying to fend off competitors such as Arm and Google. Governments will vie to attract chipmaking to their shores, to protect supply chains. Taiwan’s TSMC hopes to open its first, long-delayed plant in America. America’s Micron will manufacture its first India-made chips.

TO WATCH: Quantum crawl. 2025 will be the UN’s International Year of Quantum Science and Technology, marking a century since the field’s birth. Quantum computers could perform operations millions of times faster than today’s machines. But the path to wide adoption will be a slow one.

Media and entertainment

No Olympics. Fewer massive sporting events. And no American election. 2025 holds less excitement for advertisers than did 2024. Growth in global ad spending will slow in 2025 to about 4%, according to Dentsu, an advertising giant. Sales of digital ads—more than 60% of the total—will rise at their slowest pace since 2020.

Advertisers will turn to other digital tools. AI will be in vogue for making ads and targeting punters, though media giants’ battles with AI firms over copyright and other matters will drag on. Social media, crucial for advertisers, will attract regulators’ scrutiny. American lawmakers will continue to tussle with China’s TikTok. Malaysia will make big technology platforms apply for licences, roiling free-speech advocates.

Cable TV will be in its death throes. In 2025 72% of all American households will have either cut the cord or never had one. Its demise has been hastened by the launch of ad-supported tiers on streaming platforms such as Amazon Prime and Hulu. The death knell will sound with the loss of live sport on cable platforms. From 2025 Amazon will hold the rights to National Basketball Association games for 11 years. World Wrestling Entertainment’s weekly shows will go to Netflix.

Streamers are also hurting the box office. Even in 2025 cinema revenues will not recover to pre-pandemic levels: PwC, a consultancy, forecasts they will reach $41bn. Helping cinemas’ cause will be “Avatar 3” and the eighth film in the “Mission Impossible” series, both of which were delayed by Hollywood strikes.

TO WATCH: Upon a star. Disney has struggled in India. But if regulators comply, its dreams will come true in 2025 when its Indian arm merges with the streaming business of Reliance Industries, a local behemoth. The new firm will have 750m Indian viewers.

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